Author: Jeff Id

Crystal Ball

Reader Another Ian left a post from Market Ticker.org quoted in part below. This has to do with the very short bits of recording released by Tucker Carlson that were denied to all defendants from January 6. Many of whom have spent years in prison having committed no crimes whatsoever.

This is a serious problem for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the number of people sitting in prison — or convicted on connived, false claims with no ability for their defense to access the evidence proving that in many cases they were escorted.

At worst most of these people are guilty of trespass, but even there you likely can’t make it stick as trespass is voided if you’re invited or chaperoned, and its quite clear that at least in some cases — they are.

There’s another problem too: The Brady decision by the USSC makes clear that the prosecution must turn over all evidence they have which exculpates a defendant. It’s not optional and it dates to 1963. The violations here are severe and in fact it appears basically universal.

Indeed the definition of malicious prosecution is to bring a case before the court where you know the exculpatory evidence is so strong you’d never win a conviction and you intentionally withhold it from the defense. That opens up the DOJ and even the individuals involved to personal liability.

This is significant in that all of the convictions of anyone on January 6, must now be overturned simply to follow US law. Additionally, the activist judges who disallowed venue change, grouped offenders with non-offenders to run up the numbers, disallowed access to attorneys, must now be censured quite severely and in many cases disbarred or we will nave no rights whatsoever in the foreseeable future.

Happens quick when you steal elections doesn’t it?

When the police invite you into the capitol, even helping you open the doors, isn’t there a presumption that your actions are allowed? When the FBI is mixed in the crowd, not as observers but inciters of violence, is that not entrapment?

We are at the beginning of the fascist takeover, my crystal ball shows some ugly stuff in the future.

Exculpatory Evidence — Denied

Shaman Dude Thanks Police for Helping Them Into the Capitol

I haven’t posted much on the fake insurrection because the evil horrors committed by our government leave me speechless and angry. Anyone of conscious knows what really happened that day and the lack of outrage at the abusive and illegal treatment of the inmates and protestors is beyond disgusting. The lie factory perpetrated by the Democrats and the Uniparty Republicrats and fake news media, disgust me to no end. These video’s were denied at trial for any of the victims of this persecutorial un-elected government – for no other reason except that they are exculpatory.

Yesterday, Tucker Carlson released an unseen video of police escorting the Q-anon shaman (crazy dude), previously seen at numerous rallies across the country, straight into the senate chambers. They led him through the building and tried multiple doors and even held doors for him as he went into the floor of the senate. Never once even suggesting he should not be there.

Thank you heavenly father for taking the inspiration needed to these police officers to allow us into this building.

How about instead of shooting them or imprisoning them after opening the doors and welcoming them into the building, you simply suggest they leave?

Interesting Table from Cochrane

I thought this was fun. The Mask study fun continues. This is the only plot from the Cochraine report on the efficacy of masks to block viral spread. The row titled “viral respiratory illness – inflenza/COVID-like illness”, shows that among 276,917 people, The conclusion was a risk ratio of .95 and among the laboratory confirmed cases 1.01.

What is interesting is that the ONLY reason that they didn’t give this first line a ‘high certainty’ as shown in the table below, was because the people wearing masks ‘knew’ they were wearing masks, not for the blindingly obvious statistical evidence that they don’t actually do anything.

a Downgraded one level for study limitations (lack of blinding).

Not to say that the ‘moderate certainty’ as defined below means that there is very much concern about the results being accurate. But this downgrade is based on a ‘feeling’ rather than statistics. There was no identical downgrade applied to the laboratory confirmed cases even though laboratory confirmation folks obviously were also aware they were wearing masks as well.

Also interesting is that the laboratory confirmed cases were 40/1000 whereas untested cases were 160/1000. A 1:4 ratio with perfect balance of illnesses between each of the two populations.


EDIT: — Adding this because I can.

The downgrade from High to Moderate certainty was stated to be because people in the study knew whether or not they had a mask on, which is a real world condition for mask efficacy. Whereas if you had a condition where you didn’t know if you had a mask on or not, would be completely unrealistic and WOULD potentially bias the data requiring a downgrade.

Therefore, this downgrade is scientifically false and we should absolutely reject it. This leaves us with the only remaining conclusion that we know with high certainty that people in the public wearing masks will have no better outcome than those who don’t.

Jeff Id

Too Good to Be True

This video is making rounds on the conservative news sites. The claim is that increases in atmospheric CO2 should have slowed due to reduction in CO2 emission during covid. I don’t believe him because magnitude matters in science.

If you want to take the first derivative of that black line in the 2nd plot and look for a time-lagged correlating squiggle, good luck. Perhaps a multi-variate regression of absorption rate combined with the time lagged derivative of the black line and emissions to find an effect. A simple look isn’t going to get this one done.

Cochrane Report on Masks and Handwashing – My critics have no chops.

Some readers demand attention. I have no interest in this report as I’ve read far too many mask studies. However people who don’t understand what these reports are saying, can make a lot of noise. Equality does not apply to ability, only to opportunity. This is a science report and it is done with a fairly cold and scientific styling. Unlike another one which stuffed non-existent climate change in the middle of an otherwise important article on overfishing in the Bering Straight. It turns out that sustainable fishing practices aren’t always so. But I digress.

Now once you come to grips with the fact that not one single study shows efficacy of a mask against viral spread, you have to ask yourself why?

A quote from Jeff Id on tAV blog

The focus of this article is a meta-analysis, or a study of studies, which is the worst kind of study as it is usually a vehicle for opinions to be placed after lots of papers with differing methods are agglomerated into a pile. I could write an entire post on why I don’t like this kind of study (with examples), but before my critics get too excited, this particular one doesn’t appear to be too badly mashed.

This particular Cochrane report (Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses), uses risk ratio to determine whether a signal is found and presents confidence intervals.

A risk ratio (RR), also called relative risk, compares the risk of a health event (disease, injury, risk factor, or death) among one group with the risk among another group. It does so by dividing the risk (incidence proportion, attack rate) in group 1 by the risk (incidence proportion, attack rate) in group 2.

The report:

How to read the data, AKA –>> spoonfeeding:

12 trials (10 cluster‐RCTs) comparing medical/surgical masks versus no masks —

risk ratio (RR) 0.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.84 to 1.09 — this means the number of sick folks with masks divided by the number of sick folks without masks came to 0.95. So 95 mask wearers get sick per 100 non-mask wearers who get sick. Simple right?

This example shows that of 12 different randomly controlled trials, the people wearing masks were 95% (bold 0.95 above) as likely to get viral illness as those not wearing masks, but as with most observation based papers, there is a confidence interval (CI) based on the likelihood of that same result with random data. The CI is from 0.84 to 1.09 and is based on the nearly ubiquitous standard of 95% probability of being in this range from random data alone. Super simple version — you don’t want the high number to be greater than 1. This means 1.09 indicates NO statistically significant signal detected. As that indicates 109 mask wearers get sick per 100 non mask wearers. A RR value of 1.00, means a perfectly equal number of sick folks.

In other words, medical and surgical masks against no masks created no signal and masks don’t work to prevent disease spread. The conclusion of this section is:

Wearing masks in the community probably makes little or no difference to the outcome of influenza‐like illness

Cochrane Report 2003 –>moderate‐certainty evidence

and they know the RR of 0.95 is right there near 1.00 where it shouldn’t be so they call their conclusion —>moderate‐certainty evidence. They are moderately certain that there is little to no difference.

Lets do some more.

Continue reading “Cochrane Report on Masks and Handwashing – My critics have no chops.” →

Dunno – Unanimous Vote in Senate

Odd. Senate votes to declassify the origins of covid????

Hmm. We all know the origins of covid. What we don’t know is what the hell a pangolin was doing with some smokeshow cali girl or even what a pangolin actually is. /sarc

Does that mean we will see actual documents that are not full of black squares with the important bits cut out to protect the guilty innocent? Doubt it.

People are very, very guilty, and they are the ones still doing the same things. It is high time our “leaders” acted as such. Speeches are done.

Lake Files to Supreme Court

Gateway Pundit seems again to be the only site willing to discuss the blatant fraud that went on in Arizona. There are numerous isssues in this filing but I am again time-limited so the one which I would like to point out this morning is this little beastie that the AZ Supreme Court will have some difficulty with.

The background is in this post where Maricopa was given the presumption of being correct and acting in good faith, even though the county didn’t even bother to claim that they had acted correctly. The newly invented precedent of this means that no matter what you claim seems to have happened, without extraordinary proof of it, you will never challenge an election in Arizona. The State is automatically assumed correct. This is NOT how law is supposed to work there. So far, no court has done its job however.

Claims made in new Supreme Court filing:

Presumptions of good faith and honesty do not aid Maricopa.

The same principles above apply to presumptions favoring election officials. Opinion ¶6. When the Legislature wants to adopt clear-and-convincing thresholds for its presumptions, it knows how. A.R.S. §§25-814(C), 23-364(B). Absent a statute or rule, default principles apply to presumptions. Ariz.R.Evid. 301. “Whenever evidence contradicting a legal presumption is introduced the presumption vanishes.” Silva v. Traver, 63 Ariz. 364, 368 (1945); Golonka v. GMC, 204 Ariz. 575, 589-90, ¶48 (App. 2003) (discussing “bursting bubble” treatment of presumptions). Evidence of Maricopa’s bad faith eliminated Maricopa’s presumptions.

Presumptions cannot aid Runbeck.

Even if Maricopa preserved its entitlement to presumptions of good faith, its private third-party contractor Runbeck lacks such presumptions. Sedillo, 70 Ariz. at 200 (“the officials in this election were not public officials where we can say that there is a presumption that they acted in good faith”).

Never forget Id’s first rule of law: Judicial decisions must never make sense.

No Brainer and Fauci Knew all Along. Two Virologists Credibly Accused of Being Bought Off by NIH.

They actively make weapons against the world, do not secure borders, take your property, eliminate the right to vote, force chemicals into your body, and unequally practice justice. You have to wonder if people will ever practice or even remotely recall the United States Constitution.

Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

Declaration of Independence – 1776

In the meantime, I want to thank the back of the class for providing entertainment.

It’s amazing how often you can be wrong, and then claim that you’re right. You’re wrong because you say it’s a certainty that the virus was engineered. What’s amazing is you don’t even see how that’s wrong even when you reference material that explicitly states that you’re wrong. And yes it’s a conspiracy theory that you’re promoting, because in order for you to be right that it’s a certainty that the virus was engineered all these people including people that you’re referring to would have to be lying

Id was right again…. dang.

Oh come on. Now the FIB Director Christopher Wray is blaming China for the Wuhan virus. It wasn’t that long ago when leftists had you banned for such nonsense.. The nearly ubiquitous bans continue to date. I can tell you that tAV is a depreciated link in google these days. They must miss me from Climategate. It’s almost like it was a coordinated effort of the government over our communications or something.

We know that the NIH under Fauci, Obama, and Trump, FUNDED THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE VIRUS in the Wuhan CHINA lab. Fauci knows this, knew this, profited from this, and was part of a governmental group that used it to create unconstitutional regulations that have permanently terminated your right to vote. Trump did not stop it, nor did Biden or Odumas.

So freaking stupid. How the hell can people not even read what is sitting in front of their faces??? It’s right there. THE USURPED STATES OF AMERICA MADE A VIRUS WITH CHINESE COOPERATION. Nobody knows how it was released into nature but once it was, it was easy enough to create fear — and unconstitutional regulation. It was also impossible to stop with our technology. Leftists are now pointing at China for the unconstitutional bloated, corrupt government of the United States. Whell, why not!? Dumfux will fall for it, after all, you just wore masks for three years.

Specific Aim 3: Testing predictions of CoV inter-species transmission.  We will test our models of host range (i.e. emergence potential) experimentally using reverse genetics, pseudovirus and receptor binding assays, and virus infection experiments in cell culture and humanized mice. With bat-CoVs that we’ve isolated or sequenced, and using live virus or pseudovirus infection in cells of different origin or expressing different receptor molecules, we will assess potential for each isolated virus and those with receptor binding site sequence, to spill over.  We will do this by sequencing the spike (or other receptor binding/fusion) protein genes from all our bat-CoVs, creating mutants to identify how significantly each would need to evolve to use ACE2, CD26/DPP4 (MERS-CoV receptor) or other potential CoV receptors.  We will then use receptor-mutant pseudovirus binding assays, in vitro studies in bat, primate, human and other species’ cell lines, and with humanized mice where particularly interesting viruses are identified phylogenetically, or isolated. These tests will provide public health-relevant data, and also iteratively improve our predictive model to better target bat species and CoVs during our field studies to obtain bat-CoV strains of the greatest interest for understanding the mechanisms of cross-species transmission.Excerpt from a grant application for the intentional mutation of the Coronavirus spike protein.

“The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan,”

FIB director Christopher Wray on some leftist news channel

And some idiots here call me a conspiracy theorist for posting facts. The FIB had never told anyone of their “assessment”, all they did was lie about natural origins of something they knew with 100% certainty was man-made.

A. Jeff, that isn’t how it works.

B. Jeff you aren’t a governmentally ordained virologist OR climatologist you are only an aeronautical engineer.

C. Jeff there isn’t some magic formula that could even be built with our technology.

OR

D. Yeah, you were right again.

If you guessed D, well done. If you knew D—– well that is even better.

Hey guess what? masks don’t work either. You were forced to wear them out of fear while they stole your right to vote.

Remember when they stopped development of all novel viral bioweapons products in response to covid-19, and considered a new set of regulations to create a safety layer such that humanity would not have this happen again? Maybe a human health bill of rights?

No? That is because they didn’t. These idiots are continuing right along the same path making new and “better” viruses. With your money!!

Maybe the greatest virologist of all time, Dokkktor Fauci, actually knew the definition of gain-of-function — naw can’t be true. There are lots of dead people on this globe from these leftist “scientists” and drug corporations.

FYI, I am not suicidal or depressed. I’m a very happy blogger. In socialist governments, people who are right, sometimes have problems.

Imagine

I was dreaming of a world last night where we had a perfect energy source. It was a nice dream. Something which was high density, easily transportable, simple to find and not damaging to the environment. wow… What if it then had a low extraction footprint with no strip-mining, no rarity of existence, and even better, no biologically deadly emissions. It would be a Gaian dream. Greener than anything ever imagined by any human in history.

My dream grew even bigger. I don’t think small when dreaming apparently, which must be a side effect of the nefarious manner in which I was raised. This energy source was something that was easy to use with simple machinery such that energy could be made into rotational, kinetic, electric and heat with minimal mechanical requirements. You might even carry it in a bucket or something – I know it’s silly.

Such an energy source would revolutionize humanity. With almost no negative impacts, everyone on Earth would be behind it. Imagine how the freedom it would create would be completely unbounded. You could literally travel anywhere!! And then, what if that energy source emitted something useful!!!!

I know it’s impossible but wow, what a world it would be. What a world!!!!!!

My perfect dream would create no change in the existing rate of sea level rise – in all of recorded history..

Hurricanes wouldn’t increase..

Droughts would not get worse..

Famine would be dramatically reduced.

I know it’s impossible but man, what if its byproducts made clothes and food and toys and even birthday cakes!!! That would be a beautiful thing! Ahhh, if only I were God, what a thing I would do.

Everyone would be on my side.

Every single person would be my friend.

U.S. Energy Department Takes the Red Pill

The U.S. Energy Department, responsible for bringing you um…. something that um … Well we really don’t know what it is for but It must do something as it has grew from 34 billion dollars to 54 billion dollars per year since 2018. Probably procures ammunition or baby formula or something else useful and unrelated to the constitution of this country.

Well one thing it apparently does is “advanced biological research”

The Energy Department’s conclusion is the result of new intelligence and is significant because the agency has considerable scientific expertise and oversees a network of U.S. national laboratories, some of which conduct advanced biological research.

Wall Street Journal

I for one, can’t see anything wrong with that as it needs to do something with that kind of money and building infrastructure would clearly be a waste of their innate Democrat Gaia-ordained skill.

Whell, the Energy Department has now concluded with ‘low confidence’ that covid leaked from the Wuhan lab. That’s amazing considering that was a twitter-banned conservative conspiracy of DISINFORMATION!!! Disinformation!! disinformation!!

Apparently disinformation becomes information when a Democrat says it from an over-bloated government agency – but NOT before. The FBI, however, still can’t figure it out. They think it was natural, again with ‘low confidence’. At least the FBI is allegedly designed to investigate conservatives things that may break a law. I can imagine no reason why the Energy Department has any business doing such biological investigations.

Well, everyone who reads at tAV alrady knows with high confidence that COVID was created in a lab. Except for one person. Because that is what Peter Daszak’s application for funding directly says they were doing in the Wuhan lab. Of course, the application was to the PHS, which is Public Health Services, the office of Extramural Programs and some kind of thing related to the NIH which apparently is tasked with making bio-weapons as outlined in this Boston paper.

The PHS 398 instructions contain information for preparing grant applications to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and other Public Health Service (PHS) agencies.

The Boston paper where COVID 19 was intentionally redesigned and upgraded, was also funded by the NIH, NAID, NAC CTSI and the Evans Center for Interdisciplinary Biomedical Research at Boston University School of Medicine for their support of the Affinity Research Collaborative on ‘Respiratory Viruses’.

I don’t really see why the U.S. Energy department is having such a hard time figuring this out. Seems pretty obvious that if you throw enough letters on stuff, you can build bioweapons.

Specific Aim 3: Testing predictions of CoV inter-species transmission.  We will test our models of host range (i.e. emergence potential) experimentally using reverse genetics, pseudovirus and receptor binding assays, and virus infection experiments in cell culture and humanized mice. With bat-CoVs that we’ve isolated or sequenced, and using live virus or pseudovirus infection in cells of different origin or expressing different receptor molecules, we will assess potential for each isolated virus and those with receptor binding site sequence, to spill over.  We will do this by sequencing the spike (or other receptor binding/fusion) protein genes from all our bat-CoVs, creating mutants to identify how significantly each would need to evolve to use ACE2, CD26/DPP4 (MERS-CoV receptor) or other potential CoV receptors.  We will then use receptor-mutant pseudovirus binding assays, in vitro studies in bat, primate, human and other species’ cell lines, and with humanized mice where particularly interesting viruses are identified phylogenetically, or isolated. These tests will provide public health-relevant data, and also iteratively improve our predictive model to better target bat species and CoVs during our field studies to obtain bat-CoV strains of the greatest interest for understanding the mechanisms of cross-species transmission.Excerpt from a grant application for the intentional mutation of the Coronavirus spike protein.

Peter Daszak application leaked to the public. Clear gain-of-function right in the grant plan.

Metadata from word document:

understanding-the-risk-of-bat-coronavirus-emergence-7-full-refs-fDownload

I think with just a few billion more dollars, the U.S. Energy Department may be able to UPGRADE the confidence from low to “moderate”.

The EVIL nature of the cleanest energy on the planet…. ?

Ok, that’s not funny anymore. This is the line for ‘me and we’ are now at war. After 15 years of blogging on non-existent climate change and Marxist ass-hats, I’m really done with you idiots now.

I put a nice post up on stoves here, and it got little attention. WUWT didn’t pick it up, although they should have because it is also correct and they need a little ‘science’ in their threads. I’ll stuff it in a comment there today and maybe they will take it up.

In the meantime, people are so freaking dumb about things. Well X said Y so whatever U say is not credible.

Dumas is not supposed to be a verb.

You personally, actually fart more methane than your own gas stove – even if it is leaky. Sorry smoke-show hot ladies, this is true for you too. You ALSO emit more CO2 than your own stove. Also sorry dudes, even while sitting silently in your preferred chair of happiness, you are an emitter of things that don’t actually harm anything. Some of us, even find it relaxing. You think kitty don fart? …. oh yes he does and if you are a climate change freak, he’s outsmarted you.

I’m sick of it. This is NOT freedom or capitalism or pursuit of happiness or anything resembling the thing that “constitutes” our multi-state agreement. We can’t vote, we can’t talk, now you will control how much energy we can use. By the way, energy is the ultimate power in the universe. No amazing pun intended.

This is beyond a problem kids. Just so this is really clear to you leftist “verbs”, I’m cash-blessed and getting old, and can make my own damned stove and stick it on a custom made “yacht hovercraft” if I wanted to and then drill my own well to get whatever gas I need ANNNND hide it where you cannot see it. Hmm… You are the ones who will suffer — not me. I write that nonsense because my statements are not grounded in the selfishness of need.

This is the problem.

Under section 111(b) of the Clean Air Act, EPA must set NSPS and Emission Guidelines for each type of regulated source by applying the “best system of emission reduction,” or “BSER,” that the Administrator determines has been adequately determined.

We literally have an “administrator” determining what law we must follow. This is a person you don’t know and cannot elect or remove from office. We simultaneously have Washington DC appointing such “administrators”. We have implemented cost WITHOUT representation.

This did NOT exist 30 years ago.

In DC, only 5% of the citizens voted republican. These are the people in the jury for the Jan 6 defendants, they are the judges and they are the lawmakers assigned to the EPA. This incredible lack of representation is obviously caused by politically discriminatory hiring practices of the left, and these are the masters of the government. Exactly as the founders warned you would happen.