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Lewandowsky’s Mess – A question of misrepresentation and scientific integrity

Posted by Jeff Id on July 15, 2015

With the endless continuation of Dr. Stephan Lewandowsky’s attacks on those skeptical of the conclusions of activist climate science, I don’t think I’ve made something clear enough in the past.  In his Recursive Fury article, Lewandowsky published a derogatory statement as a scientific fact, completely contrary to the facts he had in his possession (generally a scientific no-no)and I can prove it fairly convincingly.  The article in question was taken off line immediately in response to my complaint, the reference was changed to something else equally inaccurate but less derogatory and the article went back on line.  Others were still affected by the slash and burn tactics and the paper was eventually retracted in its entirety due to numerous complaints about ethics and statistics.  Now Lewandowsky is on line with the same ridiculous conclusions of his retracted article still boldly stated, and he is making as much publicity of it as he can yet the names of the subjects studied removed.  Below, I have clarified what Lewandowsky published inaccurately about me and what information he possessed at the time he published this retracted article.

In our first run in with Lewandowsky here he published a scientific article titled “MOTIVATED REJECTION OF SCIENCE NASA faked the moon landing|Therefore (Climate) Science is a Hoax: An Anatomy of the Motivated Rejection of Science”, citing my name and ascribing a belief to me which I do not hold.  Citation of a subject by name, while ascribing what is basically a mental pathology to them as a form of diagnosis, is clearly unethical thing to do in a psychology paper, but that is beside the point I am trying to make.  I contacted him directly,  explained my beliefs and requested a retraction.

His inaccurate claim was:

Thus, AIDS denial has been linked to the belief that the U.S. Government created HIV; the tobacco industry viewed lung cancer research as an \oligopolistic cartel,” and climate deniers believe that temperature records have been illegitimately adjusted to exaggerate warming (e.g., Condon, 2009).

While the claim is inaccurate , it could be potentially interpreted as an honest mistake by an uncareful researcher.  I wrote the following to Lewandowsky personally by email which he received and responded to.  Basically he cannot claim to not have knowledge of this matter.

Surprisingly and unfortunately, your recent paper has garnered a lot
of attention in press which has created concerns on my part.  Besides
obvious ethics issues with respect to intentionally damaging the
reputations of those you “study”, you should be aware that upon
review, you have used my name and reference in this paper in
demonstrably misleading and libelous manner.  Your recent article has
falsely represented me as a global temperature trend denier amongst
numerous other inaccurate characteristics.  Specifically, you have
referenced an on-line article that I wrote about access to data (not
the result) to represent that I hold an anti-science position.  In
other words, your reference does not support or even address your
conclusion. Leaving the other ugly implications in this publication
aside, it is only a complete ignorance of station adjustments which
could legitimately lead you to conclude that my mention of these
substantial corrections was “anti-science”.  Had you contacted me, I
would have explained you that these large adjustments to temperature
are real and necessary, but every working scientist questions their
magnitude to varying extent.

My email continued:

Admittedly, it was rather shocking to be attacked with such stunning
inaccuracy when I have so often argued in support of the reality of
anthropogenic warming.  There are hundreds of examples of my
scientific opinions on line.

and:

I never have “denied” global temperature trends or the
anthropogenic component and have often argued their unequivocal
existence in print.

Lewandowsky acknowledged my email with a short reply that acknowledged the problem.

I don’t believe I cited you inaccurately given the context of what I was saying and referring to—although I agree that your  name was listed in a sentence with the noun “denier,” thereby creating a tacit association that was in fact not intended on my part. All I wanted to do is to cite an example of criticisms of adjustments that—like it or not—often involve conspiracist ideation.

Again, this of course does not appear to reach the level of intentional misrepresentation.   He’s arguing some kind of sophmoric nonsense possibly out of embarrassment and despite his apparent reasonableness in his first email, I eventually had to go to Eric Eich to get the matter resolved for THIS article.  As you can see, Lewandowsky was fully informed of my work and my opinions on the matter of global temperature trends by email.  He had plenty of time to check the veracity of my claims online if he somehow doubted my email and I had clearly stated my own belief in global warming directly to him personally.

So then a short time later Lewandowsky published another paper, this one claiming to study the supposedly irrational response of people to his fake Moon Landing article — “Recursive fury: Conspiracist ideation in the blogosphere in response to research on conspiracist ideation.”

The paper contained the statement I believe we can accurately classify as intentionally misrepresenting his data:

“Conspiracist ideation is arguably particularly prominent on climate blogs, such as when expressing the belief that temperature records show warming only because of systematic adjustments (e.g., Condon, 2009) …..”

A more dishonest representation of my own repeatedly stated opinions is hard to imagine.  Dr. Lewandowsky was clearly aware of my blog as he linked two times to it and he had my opinions by email.  So those are the basic demonstrable facts (data in terms of a soft Psychology paper) which Lewandowsky had in his possession.  Since the facts directly contradict his scientifically published assertion, we can hypothesize as to the reasons for his repeated misrepresentations.   Ironically, the good doctor may have diagnosed his own condition in his recent republication (sans names) of the previously retracted recursive fury paper:

Several of those hypotheses were based on what we call unreflexive counterfactual thinking; that is,
the hypothesis was built on a non-existent, counterfactual state of the world, even though knowledge about the
true state of the world was demonstrably available at the time.

However, a second, somewhat simpler explanation is plausible.  Knowing Lewandowsky’s outspoken political extremism against free market capitalism, it could potentially fit our current state of knowledge about his reasoning as well (from here):

Fraud

A false representation of a matter of fact—whether by words or by conduct, by false or misleading allegations, or by concealment of what should have been disclosed—that deceives and is intended to deceive another so that the individual will act upon it to her or his legal injury.

I suppose we will never know the truth.

After this unpleasant experience, I do wonder though if even that can reach the limit of an ‘ethical violation’ in some of these psychology journals. Considering that Lewandowsky, a government funded psychologist who is very much active in promoting governmental solutions, would publish and republish attack papers only loosely disguised as science without negative consequence to his reputation and continued funding, is a matter we should all be concerned about.  That multiple psychology journals have now carelessly passed several unethical and scientifically inaccurate articles of this type through their peer review process without negative consequence to their own reputation and funding is simply beyond comprehension.

Posted in Uncategorized | 18 Comments »

If you made six figures for writing nonsense, would you stop?

Posted by Jeff Id on July 9, 2015

I received an email today from a reader who generously shared some Lewandowsky related news on the climate front.   As you know, I haven’t exactly been energetic in my posting.  I’m rather disgusted with climate science and while I still read regularly, I don’t seem to be able to find the energy to actually give a crap about what the leftist Climate Science(TM) crowd says.   Still, I can be dragged from my grumpy shell.  Here is the article of interest, written by these luminary visionaries – bork!!
.
In short, Stephan Lewandowsky has published yet another piece of fake science, using yet more government money, stolen from productive free-market minions, for purposes of bashing on those of us who can read a graph.  AKA, climate skeptics.   At this point, even other leftist scientists like Dr. Ivar Giaever are bailing out of the climate science wagon.  You have to be a shill or a moron to not understand that climate science is a scam at this point.  Not that it stops the ever-less relevant Real Climate guys from diving on the constant grenades to cover the scam.
 .
Here is Steve’s real funding disclosure for his fake paper:
The first author was supported by a Discovery Outstanding Researcher Award from the Australian Research Council during
part of this research, and he has been supported by a Wolfson Research Merit Award from the Royal Society since 2013. In
addition, the research was supported by internal funding from the University of Bristol and the University of Western Australia.
The remaining authors have no funding to report.
I literally cannot imagine living in a world where the likes of Stephan Lewandowsky receive “outstanding researcher awards” (lc intended).   The man is the lowest form of life on this planet as history will certainly show.  There is no value in his publication other than to slander those who disagree with him.   Intellectually, and mathematically he doesn’t reach the kneecaps of the majority of readers of this blog and the man has reached high fame by slandering our group.
.
Anyway, I replied to the email as follows:
I’m trying to make myself care about this. Lew is a leftist political hack who will never give up.  Cook is tagging along with a moron, so what does that make him.
I read/skimmed most of the article because I found myself fogging out after a few paragraphs.  How does a “journal” publish something like that?   How do “scientists” take it seriously?
It ain’t much like engineering.
Publish away Lewie.   No matter how extreme you are, you cannot stop basic observation which contradicts theory.
CMIP5-90-models-global-Tsfc-vs-obs-thru-2013[1]

Dr. Roy Spencer

Posted in Uncategorized | 13 Comments »

Logical Egalitarianism

Posted by Jeff Id on June 9, 2015

I just want to highlight the names of the newly released yet surely seminal paper which claims to have reinstated global warming.   Karl et al. discussed repeatedly at ‘skeptic’ blogs.  Take a moment and read the names of these enlightened few climate scientist Illuminati as their names are intended for generational quotation.

Thomas R. Karl,Anthony Arguez, Boyin Huang, Jay H. Lawrimore, James R. McMahon, Matthew J. Menne, Thomas C. Peterson, Russell S. Vose, Huai-Min Zhang

Their paper starts with a humble title belying the incredible conclusions boldly permeating the article: Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus

What exactly is a global warming “hiatus” I wonder?  I wold assume it is a delay in a known continuous process. Perhaps a pause in warming otherwise not expected to pause.   Mirriam-Webster:a period of time when something (such as an activity or program) is stopped.

So they seem to assume that the warming must continue, said warming must absolutely exceed the natural variations of climate else it be cooling,and therefore must without question be net positive at all times.  How is it that a ‘climate scientist’, as opposed to any ACTUAL kind of scientist, doesn’t recognize that even in a climate warming process, flat or even negative periods of warming might exist?   Even IF models are right about warming, and  they are clearly not, the climate models would have periods of less than average warming.  It seems obvious to those of us who are NOT on the payroll of world governments, and ARE scientifically literate, that in a minimally warming world as we have observed, we MIGHT even see periods of cooling.  One literate in climate, and possessing a sufficiently unbiased mind would even expect substantial cooling on occasion.

But no, these amazing government-funded scientists have determined that we are in a hiatus of warming, and that hiatus is caused not by models being too high in trend as compared to observation or perhaps part of natural deviations from expected warming, or god-forbid part of a scientific truth that CO2 warming is far less severe than claimed.  No — these individuals make the bold claim that the thermometers are wrong.  All of them.

It reminds me of something “allegedly” controversial.  Bruce Jenner’s claim to be a woman.    Biologically, from written history, we all know what Bruce was born as a male.  Biologically and technologically, we cannot change his chromosomes out for female ones.  In fact, were we to do so, he would cease to be himself whatsoever and we would be forced to conclude differently.  Bruce’s own stated wish to be a woman changes very little with respect to this simple fact… I hold no ill will toward Bruce and hold no care whatsoever to what gender he wishes himself out to be.  Excepting the fact that he took the name of one of my girlfriends of past lives and hardly holds up to the memory.  However, Bruce is a man, a male, a boy with the typical side-effects thereof.  There is no controversy in my mind and the facts cannot be changed to favor or disfavor anyone’s opinion on the matter, because these are facts, and that is the point of this rant.  Even left-wing environmentally crazy progressives cannot change fact.  This matter is of course entirely separate from how you should treat a friend who wishes to be treated a certain way.  To that I say, to each their own and good for them etc….

Humans can wish facts to change though, and often do, and in my opinion that is what team Karl is guilty of.  A wish for different facts.  Better facts in their minds, which still fit the heyday of 10 years ago when climate models, while visibly still too high in warming rate, were not statistically separable from truth.

Truth is a funny concept in the days of saturated yellow journalism where the climate message approaches a level of brainwashing that even the resistant can hardly parse.   When Dr. Gupta is promoting “organic” food, as though there is any other kind, and he drops in casually that there is no doubt that such food is environmentally beneficial.  I wonder just how is the public supposed to internalize that message?  He is a doctor after all, but facts are facts and we do not get to chose which ones are actual facts.  It doesn’t matter that the inaccurately named ‘organic’ farming creates a massive environmental footprint and feeding masses of people this way is environmentally impossible.  It doesn’t matter because the doctor has a feeling!   Words like organic DO have meaning, and despite the Dr’s. feelings the consistency of that meaning is an important part of language.   Without consistency, we have no way to discuss anything.  For instance, what is the medical definition of male…..  Think about that.   What is it, what is the purpose of it, and why should a feeling on the matter have any influence whatsoever on the medical definition of male.  No question mark intended.  What will the coroner check on a death certificate?  Do the coroner’s feelings matter too?

Anyway, like Bruce, team Karl is clearly not happy with the facts, and their waste of parchment was not a simple matter of making a correction to the data, leaving others to make conclusions on the meaning.   The paper is instead rife with “WE SAVED THE CLIMATE MODELS” conclusion, starting from the abstract and continuing to the last sentence in the paper.  The paper has more “Feelings” than most any hippie bonfire could produce, unfortunately it is held out as modern cutting-edge science.

Unfortunately for team Karl (and Bruce), facts are facts, and feelings are not..  Even we rational thinking people (aka climate skeptics) are stuck with observation on which to base science.   Despite my best efforts to the contrary, imagined corrections to data are not part of my engineering world.   If temps warm, they warm, if they cool, they cool.  TRUE scientists who seek actual truth as a goal rather than proof of a dogmatic and false claim, are stuck with such mundane things.  That the climate world would accept such dogma is a symptom of the ongoing and wide-spread feelings-first illness in the progressive global climate science industry where friends always pass and non-believers are put out in the cold.

The scripture of their work is here….read it at your own risk.

I’ll leave you with an fun and perhaps apt video of what immediately jumped to mind while considering team Karl saving the day….

Posted in Uncategorized | 11 Comments »

Latent Decision Potential

Posted by Jeff Id on April 22, 2015

Too much EPA.  That is the Air Vent theme for Earth Day.  This business, and it is a business, was started by president Richard Nixon.  It has been a highly successful business on a large scale in that it initially resulted in one of the cleanest industrial countries in the planet’s history.   Today, the ‘published’ budget for the EPA is about 9 billion dollars per year and productive industry is being systematically eliminated.

No doubt should be given to the EPA effectiveness with respect to certain aspects of its existence but there is no limit to their function.  There are other federal agencies for compliance, and then state agencies by the ton. The dollar volume is astronomical simply to keep us from polluting.   There is no limit to environmental control.

Correlations to business

As a business owner, one of the key problems we face is not laziness of employees, it is rather employees trying to do too much.   I’ve been at this for a couple of decades, and I can tell you that people who work, want to work better.  The result is that they ADD work to themselves when they detect a problem.  It happens more often than you can imagine.  When an employee spots a problem they typically decide that an added procedure will correct it.  No management need be involved, in their opinion, and the new process begins.  Unless someone with a clearer head happens by, the process will become rock solid procedure.  The procedures pile up until you have big costs. This is such an ingrained part of human understanding that it is as much a law as the second law of thermodynamics. For cost reasons, in healthy companies, you are required to develop a strong culture for rejecting these sorts of procedure.   It must come from the top down, and MANY companies fail miserably at this.

QC departments are a perfect example.  Like environment, you can never have enough quality control.  No amount of procedure ever can give perfect quality and many companies find themselves buried in massive quality control procedures to the point where nobody can make money.   We won’t do automotive work for that reason.

In the case of government, there is literally zero resistance to added process, except for the fact that people don’t want more work and have little power to add more process.  Liberals don’t understand that this is a truly positive feedback loop.  For example, can you name the negative side for the EPA to add ANY item to their list of controlled environmental aspects?

No down side I know of…..

New EPA regulation has no downside and has even added tiny creeks across private property to their purview, seasonal puddles, and CO2 gas which has NO measured negative impact. It also has no known downside for over-predicting problems from any other item which can be ascribed to humans. Any item which can be claimed to have an intimated effect on the environment is fair game.  Fish shrinking, increased drought, reduced crops, meat-eating. The rule becomes, anything which can be popularly controlled, should be.

Like climate science, no negative feedback on any individual proposing a new rule — whatsoever

Rules instead are a positive feedback.  They exist for the pure purpose of revenue because more government people are necessarily required to manage new rules.  ANY rule you can imagine or sell is equivalent to more revenue.  ANY invention of need is a positive for the corporation titled EPA.

People  don’t understand math, they do not understand evolution, and they do not understand the power of an impetus across a large body of ‘latent decision potential’.

It isn’t my fault, but it is my blog so I’m writing about it.

Climate science is an opportunity for the epa (lower case as they now deserve) like any other.   It has grown into a monster with minimal basis in fact, and acquires existence through exaggeration. I’m tired of people who cannot parse its truths from its nonsense, and I’m equally tired of people who cannot stop pedantically arguing the nature of the minutia.  Climate models failed and oceans are big enough to absorb all of global warming energy…..period… There are a lot of smart people in the skeptic world who haven’t figured out that the oceans are truly dominant.   The oceans truly are.  A thousand years of global warming energy can result in literally 1 degree. Sometimes, when something is really obvious, it is still hard for humans to see.  That is something which has sat in my mind for recent months, but is the subject for a different post.

In the meantime, temperature observations failed to meet climate models again today. (in clear violation of strict EPA regulation)

Persuant to  EPA regulation  no. 543025.53 section 254,

No snow shall occur past April 15, as snow is not required after popular taxation.

Michigan experienced very poor visibility in our particular location due to an uncooperative Christian god who shall be fined $527.23 per regulation 543025.56 section 17.  Minority Muslim gods are exempt from rule 543025.56 per EPA affirmative action rule 125932.56.

This was the view while driving to lunch. 4-22-2015.

IMG_2533

Posted in Uncategorized | 19 Comments »

Lewandowsky Strike 4?? Really….

Posted by Jeff Id on April 17, 2015

So a Stephan Lewandowsky interview deserves publication here.  H/T Barry Woods.

Turn your mental filter on, this will cause brain damage.

What a complete loser.  He should be pushing a shopping cart collecting cans.

Posted in Uncategorized | 19 Comments »

Is tax law complicated enough yet?

Posted by Jeff Id on April 16, 2015

What did your April 15 look like? This was ours.

photo

It costs a hundred dollars just to mail first quarter taxes.   While these are all checks to various branches of government, it is of course the huge amount on them that matters.   I’m thinking that the huge stack of electronically filed paperwork, massive fees paid to people just to calculate the pile and the ridiculous multiples of my take-home actually paid into the government, perhaps even a liberal could see reason for tax reform.  ….. maybe… maybe not.

Four times a year.

Posted in Uncategorized | 11 Comments »

Entrepreneurs Regulation

Posted by Jeff Id on April 10, 2015

Kenneth Fritsch noted in the comments section of the Entrepreneur’s Experience post the following poignant reality:

I would suspect that besides taxes, a more hidden expense for small businesses and businesses in general is the cost of regulations.

He would need a federal license to be more correct — probably.  In fact, I think the FDA or the ATF or perhaps the EPA has some regulation to say as much.  Hard to tell which division holds responsibility.  I do know that the FDA (food and drug administration) seems to regulate the import of plastic ultra-sonic welders.   At least I know that on two occasions (at the FDA request) I’ve filled out an FDA form with a statement written on it that the form is not required as there is no regulation.   Of course the “form” has no space for such statements so I just write it in the ‘address’ block.   On two other occasions, no form was required.   Basically it is paperwork with no readers, that regulators don’t even know whether it is needed, but sometimes must be used.

So today I received a new shock.  It just crossed my mind that perhaps I should explain that I’m a middle class progeny.  No big money in my history, the spoon in my mouth was stainless steel rather than silver.  Not that I’m complaining, money is horribly unimportant in case you haven’t learned that lesson, until you have none of it of course.   So the shock was not the 20 pages of new employee manual compliance law we received yesterday, it was a notification from our customer that we must now comply with affirmative action law.

—-

xxxxx Company is a federal contractor or subcontractor subject to the Vietnam Era Veterans Readjustment Assistance Act (VEVRAA), as amended, Section 503 of the Rehabilitation Action of 1973, as amended (Section 503), and Executive Order 11246. As a federal contractor, xxxxx Company is obligated to take affirmative action to employee women, minorities, individuals with disabilities, and veterans. xxxxx Company is also required to inform everyone with whom it conducts business that they may have the same obligations.

This notification does not imply that your organization has the same affirmative action obligations under VEVRAA, Section 503, and Executive Order 11246, as referenced above. Your obligation under those regulations is based on a number of factors, including size of workforce and dollar amount of subcontracts. However, we are required to notify you of your potential obligations as a subcontractor.

We appreciate your cooperation in our effort to fully comply with these Federal requirements.

—-

Just another day, another pile of regulations….

I called our HR manager and found out that he wasn’t aware that we subcontract to the government through our customers.  I didn’t know he didn’t know and didn’t know that he needed to know.  Whatever… On brief reading, if we sell X amount of goods, to the government as a subcontractor,  SUB being the operative word, we must comply with affirmative action law.   I have no actual idea what that means at this moment.   I do know that we have NO idea how many of our products end up on government vehicles vs private.   Our customers don’t tell us which goes where and to whom….   Why would they?

I have not one clue when we ACTUALLY crossed the dollar thresholds to be a fully regulated govt subcontractor, but from what I’ve read online, we crossed the threshold some time ago…  I really don’t know how we would ever figure out when that actually happened.   Hell, I don’t even know if we haven’t crossed the line for some obscure reason.  We will ask lawyers, and they will tell us.

Anyway … reading this from Wiki:

The Executive Order also required contractors with 51 or more employees and contracts of $50,000 or more to implement affirmative action plans to increase the participation of minorities and women in the workplace if a workforce analysis demonstrates their under-representation, meaning that there are fewer minorities and women than would be expected given the numbers of minorities and women qualified to hold the positions available. Federal regulations require affirmative action plans to include an equal opportunity policy statement, an analysis of the current work force, identification of under-represented areas, the establishment of reasonable, flexible goals and timetables for increasing employment opportunities, specific action-oriented programs to address problem areas, support for community action programs, and the establishment of an internal audit and reporting system.

As a conservative SOB with no care what you have for your “personal engagement equipment”, our company hires the best people we can find.  Naturally, being conservatives, we are over 70 percent women, who apparently are deemed minorities?  Dunno really…   Do we have to increase the number of men, perhaps we need some artificial tanner, or perhaps some whitener?  Hard to really tell.   I have no idea if we pay the ‘right’ ratio, no idea if we comply with whatever new regulation, but I do know that our lawyers will be telling us soon — for $450/hr. — plus our time — plus our managers time—- etc..

Maybe there is some exemption for us that I don’t know.  I don’t know because I posted it at the moment learned about it to share the experience with tAV readers.  Even not knowing is a cost to us, because we have to PAY $$ to find out.

It’s just another day too, nothing special—  ever heard of California prop 65?   We got this notice just recently:

Back in February we sent a letter by fax requesting that you review the items they provide to us and identify if any of them contain the chemicals listed by the California Prop 65 legislation. We have not received a response to date. Please take a moment to review the letter and listing of parts. If your parts do not contain any of the chemicals then you just need to list the part number and state none on the reply form. We need to finalize our listing so we can reduce our legal risk and update the packaging accordingly.

We are still trying to figure it out because we have 2800 part numbers with thousands of subcomponents and with 800 chemicals, it takes a huge amount of time to figure out.  Here’s the link:

http://oehha.ca.gov/prop65/background/p65plain.html

Over 800 chemicals listed, which do you carry, which are exempt, how do you reply.  Lead has a dash though it but lead compounds don’t.  If you solder with lead, dashes are apparently exempt, but do you have the compounds in your product??  For Lead, you are also exempt if exposure is below a certain level, but exposure is in units of human absorption per day, yet the product lead percentage is in weight.  How can we actually know what absorption per day people would experience if the light is on the side of a truck? It doesn’t matter really because as a company we are guilty first anyway. Especially in California. Now we have replied to these requests many times, but the recent one above is pretty large terms of part qty and takes huge time.   If we blow disclosure, there are teams of lawyers ready to sue to make money based on imagined problems rather than actual ones.  What do you do?   You comply as best as you reasonably can …. but you really can’t.

Not that this cost individually would even scratch the surface of the taxes we pay.  Also not that that matters to most readers.   What we are experiencing at the very rare size private company we are, is immoral from a government and tax standpoint.     The system is designed to resist success for manufacturing in particular.  The tax and regulation load is so dramatic that I cannot find the words to explain.  All you need to do to see the truth is to look around at which country USED to be #1 in manufacturing, and now has so little manufacturing.  Of course, most of us simply look to what happened today, rather than what happened over time to the macro-economy.

Of course, liberals never listen, and I mean never, but it is good to vent anyway.   Better out than in, but as America’s economy continues to collapse, the sane voters ought to take note.

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 29 Comments »

Thermorons

Posted by Jeff Id on April 7, 2015

What I don’t like about climate in blogland is people who don’t understand science at all, yet pretend they do.   Outside of climate science, there are plenty of people who reject climate science completely simply because they recognize it for the political nonsense that it is.   They have no real concept as to whether the underlying physics actually functions, nor do they care, because they are smart enough to see through the lies and exaggerations and we all know if you catch the salesman in one lie, there are probably others as well.   Of course that is why Climategate is still being talked about.   The lies were exposed quite clearly so no amount of political committee “investigation” can shove it back under the carpet.

But it is the thermal whacko’s that bother me.   I cannot stand some of the inaccuracy or wrongheadedness spouted with respect to global warming.   People run around all the time spouting off about the second law of thermodynamics, in a manner which has Clausius flipping in his grave.   It is disastrously misleading what they write, and like the exaggerations of politicians climate scientists, it can do no good for those who would accurately expose the science problems with climate extremism.

The second law does not prevent radiation from a cooler body being absorbed by a warmer body….

That is not what it says.   Nobody with any thermodynamics background of useful proportion believes that.   Only fools who think they know something even dare write it and I’ve been told that by people far too often.  I can’t really fathom how people make such bold statements about the laws of thermodynamics when it is absolutely obvious they have no understanding whatsoever.  What is wrong with people such that they don’t feel the need to actually learn something before opining?  It seems an important step in making bold statements — that you know what you are talking about — as it prevents accidental jackassissm from occurring.  Hell, every radiative physics equation would break down were that true.  The very concept is so effed up that it even creates time paradoxes, yet opine they do!!   And quite loudly.  Isn’t the internet wonderful………..

Unfortunately for those large numbers of us who would rationally dispute the nonsense of climate science, there are still too many of the hard-core anti-AGW thrill-seekers in the world.  They are self-appointed saviors from the obvious exaggerations of the equal but oppositely self-appointed savior scientists who are in the business of making those exaggerations!  Attracted like magnets perhaps?

The second law does not prevent energy conduction from a cooler body to a warmer body either….

That is not what the second law of thermodynamics says and NOBODY with even a semi-functional thermodynamic understanding thinks otherwise.  If someone tells you that energy cannot transfer from the cold body to the warm one,  find someone else to explain it because you have just found yourself in the presence of a serious non-expert on thermodynamics.

I’m sick and tired of the whole mess.   Really, if you find yourself falling for that nonsense, turn it off and consider reading a thermodynamics book.  They are absolutely dry reading but if you are going down the thought path described above, you need to do something or you will break your brain!!  Broken and lost!

Alternatively, if you don’t want to spend months reading the driest literature you ever imagined, (it ain’t Dr. Suess folks) you could simply understand that the second law was written as a bulk property law.   If you flip a coin a quadrillion times, you will get an average of 50% heads every time.   Thermal interactions between billions of atoms are very fast and repeatable as energy is never lost, thus they can be well described by probability.  Thus we can say with absolute 100% certainty that NET heat always flows from a hot to cold body.

Energy as heat conducts and radiates in both directions between hot and cold bodies.  Anyone who tells you otherwise is FLAT WRONG and will eventually cause you brain damage!  If you escape thermodynamic brain damage caused by one of these a train-wrecks of a mind, you might find yourself next hearing about politics or gravity or spacetime with equally accurate descriptions.  The result of bad data, tearing trough your delicate neural structure like a bull in a china shop. Ignorance is absolutely contagious, and you don’t want to spend your days repairing your mind from such damage!

Consider that in each body there exists molecules and atoms at completely different quantum energy states – all at the same time.  On that scale, there are hot and cold molecules in any body, all the time.   Absolute zero temperature is the only possible exception where a body of molecules doesn’t exhibit multiple simultaneous energy states that I am aware of, but I’m an engineer, not a particle physicist.  But the point I’m trying to make is, how the hell would one atom would know enough about its neighbor atoms to know NOT to absorb a photon from a colder body than the average energy of its immediate neighbors?  Average energy of course being temperature.   Are there labels on the photons, do atoms take polls of each other?  Clearly not and that alone proves the mind-breaking, neuron-trashing concepts these people spout is flat stupid.  The NET heat flow however, is from hot to cold, always, because of the higher probability of energy transfer from a body which has higher excitation to a lower excitation body- and thus the second law of thermodynamics holds true.

So don’t be a thermal moron.   Be a thermal truther.  I’m sure the one thing we can agree on is that the world has enough morons.

The good news for skeptics is that on the other side, it is the “main stream” AGW scientists who are the whackos, exaggerators and cause-driven lunatics who see thermal trends in tree-rings, sheep or fish dimensions, and mollusk shells and finger-paint pictures of climate doom using weak math and really bad data.   It leaves actual climate skeptics squarely in the reasonable middle, and there are a lot of us.

How do you find us?  How do you know when you’ve run into a reasonable climate opinion?  We never dispute whether absorbing gasses — actually absorb.  We don’t fret about imperfect performance of a blackbody or reasonable approximations or parametrization of equations (although we can question some of them).   There is no room for us to imagine that some form of magic bullet is going to come along and prove the basic concepts of climate science wrong.  And we universally recognize that climate models have failed.  Unbeknownst to the thermorons, those opinions come from understanding rather than some hopey-feelie happy thoughts far too often used as a substitute for logic by the extremes on both ends of this particular discussion.

I don’t really care to be in the middle, but as is often the case in this life, nobody really gave me a choice.  Stay safe folks, the world is a dangerous place and a brain is a terrible thing to waste!

 

 

 

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 48 Comments »

97%…87%…57%…27%….. aw who knows.

Posted by Jeff Id on March 29, 2015

Richard Tol has a very nice summary of the 97% consensus f@#$ published by Cook.  It is worth your time.

Summary is here.

Posted in Uncategorized | 11 Comments »

An Entrepreneur’s Experience

Posted by Jeff Id on March 27, 2015

So I was invited to talk to a bunch of college students about my experiences in being an entrepreneur.  I’ve not really worked for anyone for almost a couple of decades although I did accept a VP position as a shareholder once for a few years.  I’m quite lucky to hang around with a bunch of smart people, kind of like this blog, functional minds tend to gather I think.  Five separate times in two different companies and in very different situations, our group has been recognized as the top growing private companies in the US, so we must be doing something right.    We have been around the block as they say, plenty of mistakes, plenty of good advice and plenty of wins.  We make the single most efficient LED lighting products in the world in several categories — have for years.  How cool is that!   Climate skeptics all too.  We’ve saved more energy than the RC geniuses ever will, but we do it for cost rather than lies about saving the planet.

I had fun talking to the students about our experiences.  Some questions were interesting although others, not so much.   You would have been proud of me for not venting too strongly, although I did happen to say -we’re probably the brownest green company on the planet!   That didn’t go over terribly well in a left-wing university, but you have to have a little fun.  I believe the kids need to understand that business is about money, nothing else, and the reason we are ‘green’ is to save our customers money.  You save fuel, you save money and there is nothing whatsoever wrong with that.

There were four presenters in the panel, one group of them had just stared a small business 4 months ago and consisted of exactly two employees.  The guys were well spoken and seemed to have all of the answers.   Someone asked the question of how to motivate employees and they answered for quite a long time quoting things about the 8 ways to motivate and such.   I found it interesting and informative because despite having not read the same book, the answers were not far off from my own and unlike them, we actually have employees.  I wonder if I should have gone to school for management, then I remember that I went to school to design planes, not lights.

I am doomed to learn everything the hard way I think.

One of my favorites on the panel was a lady who started her own bakery business in her basement.  From Ireland, she trained with top notch people from around the world.   She had no money and no bank to loan her money, so she put a used oven downstairs (which her husband installed) and started cooking.   Awesome I say!  Tough, hard work and no nonsense results.   She delivered product and avoided taking on big debts.  She felt overwhelmed by the other stories around her but she shouldn’t have.  Smart business decisions and no nonsense action.

One of my favorite sayings came from a business partner, “A bank is someone who will loan you an umbrella as long as it is not raining.”  He follows it up with, “And they will want it back if it starts raining.”

So when people asked about why we moved to Michigan, the others gave a bunch of fluffy happy answers about the quality of people and businesses and such.  As by far the largest company  represented on the panel, I answered — taxes.   Illinois extremist left-wing governor increased their taxes by 60% in a single year, although I left the adjectives to myself.  Of course the large companies in Chicago protested and made public proclamations of leaving the state.   This led to a series of negotiations, likely political contributions, and the decision by the governor to give those particular companies a pass on the tax hike.  Of course we were a little company with only 24 people back then so nobody cared about us.  Michigan’s conservative governor simultaneously lowered the Michigan rates and cleaned up the code so we took our business there.  Illinois had no care or idea we did it but the state numbers showed that we were not alone.

What I didn’t get into was taxes, and it is probably better that way because those kids don’t want to know what it really means to own a successful business.

Nobody really understands tax law and that is the way the government wants it.  Obama campaigned on raising taxes on the wealthy, voters accepted him and the hike finally became reality this year.  A five percent increase on the top earners.   What people don’t know is that the majority of the top earners are businesses.  S type corporations in the US report their percentage of the company income on their personal returns.  The company does NOT pay income taxes.  So this increase was primarily an increase in business tax

The other thing Americans don’t know is that in manufacturing in particular, when you become moderately successful, nothing is a (non-taxable) expense.  I mean nothing significant can be expensed even though you are writing checks for it.  Taxation hits so much harder in growing manufacturing companies than service type companies, the difference is truly shocking.  When a manufacturing company grows, inventory increases, tooling increases, equipment increases, accounts receivable increases, and payroll increases.  When a service company grows, you have payroll, accounts receivable and minor equipment costs.  In a growing service company, payroll is a non tax expense, however equipment and AR are not an expense.

The result of these pressures is that the US is full of marketing, banking and software ‘service’ firms, yet produces less and less product every year.

The net result of the US taxation system on a company like ours is a taxation rate in the 80% range in comparison to the cash which hits our pockets – because our company is growing and EVERYTHING is NOT an expense.  By everything, I mean even state taxes paid are still considered federally taxable income. Home interest, child care, tooling and equipment costs need to be depreciated over years, inventory increases, accounts receivable  -all taxable.  Every dollar we spend requires us to pay the federal and state governments nearly 45% tax for the privilege.  AND I’m just talking about INCOME tax.  Not import tax, VAT tax, fuel tax, export tax, real estate property tax, sales tax, personal property tax …..on and on and on.

People don’t know jack about taxes in this country.  They think they are paying, but in reality, the companies are paying huge portions of the taxes and their own incomes suffer for it.   They simply don’t see what is going on on their own checks.   How would anyone expect people to know that corporations are paying the majority of income taxes when articles continually come out explaining that individuals are actually the ones paying the most?

Tax law is more convoluted than that, and those who hate capitalism are motivated deniers of that simple fact.  There is a reason for the complexity of US tax law.

So while I am curious what your thoughts are on taxes, kids and entrepreneurship, please don’t assume that we don’t know what we are doing.   You don’t build a successful company multiple times on accident.  People often assume there is some trick which is going to save you from taxation, or it is all about loopholes.  Here’s news folks — real loopholes do NOT exist, although some leftist communists call certain minimally tax limiting rules loopholes.  If you still think we don’t know taxes, please tell us which of our four accountants, CFO or business tax lawyer we should replace and I will personally send you 50% of the savings.

Why the vent — because it is needed.   We compete with foreign companies which have far less difficulty complying with their own communist governments.  Hanging a lead weight around our neck is an apt description of government help.

So at the end of the meeting, the professor, who did a truly excellent job, mentioned that kids these days aren’t jumping in to their own businesses at the rate they used to.   I went away with a good feeling about how smart they were, and a bad feeling that they were probably smarter than me.

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 37 Comments »

Loserblogs

Posted by Jeff Id on March 13, 2015

There is a certain psychological aspect to blogging which I find interesting.   It would be quite easy to write in a reporter style or as an unengaged author.   A take it or leave it approach.   A blogger loses credibility when engaging people like Cotton, Tamino or other trolls.   It is a no win situation for them.   Even when the blogger is right, all it does is drag down the anonymity of the personality.   I never cared either way — still don’t.

Imagine though what sort of internet personality you could build, if you had the intent.   What if you were trying to build a bigger than real life personality on line and your own opinions were subservient to that goal.   It has an appeal from a narcissistic aspect, and it really could do a lot of good for your ’cause’.  Done right, a large slice of the population would buy in.

A balance of push and pull with a definite edge toward anarchy.  Credibility maintained through lack of engagement and a bit of scorn.   How easy would it be?  I fully believe I could make it work —— were I of the mind to.   Easy as pie.

What if you were paid to do it?  Would you?  Would anyone?  What if the income were six figures?

Romm?

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 5 Comments »

Something New Under the Sun

Posted by Jeff Id on March 9, 2015

Michael Mann and Jeff Id agree on something.   No really, we do.   I’m rather surprised as you can imagine.  I haven’t changed a bit but methinks Micheal Mann is a budding skeptic.  here.

Our conclusion that natural cooling in the Pacific is a principal contributor to the recent slowdown in large-scale warming is consistent with some other recent studies, including a study I commented on previously showing that stronger-than-normal winds in the tropical Pacific during the past decade have lead to increased upwelling of cold deep water in the eastern equatorial Pacific. –– Real Climate
Below is a comment right from my blog.  This bit was written in a response to Glenn Tamblyn from SKS with regards to the oceans.

Two hundred fifty trillion is 2.5 x10^14 J/second.  If we have a heat capacity of 5.6×10^24 J/K  we get 2.24×10^11 10 seconds until the ocean were warmed one degree.  That corresponds to 710 years of heating to increase the ocean volumetric temperature by one degree which is still somewhere around zero C average temperature.   In other words, climate progresses unrealistic worst possible case doom scenario’s are not sufficient to significantly affect oceanic heat content. — Jeff Id

Oddly enough, in recognizing the mixing of oceans, Real Climate may have just acknowledged that we can actually stuff 100% of global warming energy into the ocean for a millennia with literally zero consequence.  Of course the same peak-oil folks can’t imagine how we would have carbon for even another 200 years but that is another story.    By the second law of thermodynamics, when the heat is mixed into a 2C-ish body of water, it cannot be released in a manner which warms the greater temperature atmosphere of the Earth.   The heat is functionally lost in terms of global warming.  It literally cannot come back in droves or we need to rewrite physics. 

Summary for reporters, all of physics — big redo. 

In the linked Air Vent post, the main point is below (my bold for emphasis):

The sensitivity atmospheric temperature to CO2 from measured data, is therefore much lower than was predicted and that includes the argo data.  Alternatively rather than a CO2 sensitivity misjudgement, all that heat that Dr. Trenberth is famously looking for, very well could be sitting in the deep ocean making too little impact over 100 years to actually measure and all it would take is a tiny bit more (or less) oceanic intermixing than models predict for that huge heatsink to be the true source of measured climate change.   It could potentially have overwhelmed the CO2 effect without our knowing. 

In their new paper, Mann claims that the globally powerful IPCC climate model trends were inverted from a tiny change in wind mixing in the pacific.  Sounds like a pretty good copy of me!

Now make no mistake, this is heat mixed into the much colder ocean water AGAINST climate model prediction.  Shockingly, even after this situation, Real Climate STILL doesn’t feel any pressure from simple things like the “laws of physics” or “Basic Thermodynamics”.   With the quote below as the final straw, I have no idea how a scientist would wish to be associated with the Real Climate site.  Anyway, the last word should go to them and speaks for itself I think.

Given the pattern of past historical variation, this trend will likely reverse with internal variability, instead adding to anthropogenic warming in the coming decades.

Posted in Uncategorized | 34 Comments »

Free Think

Posted by Jeff Id on February 26, 2015

Wei-Hock Soon is accused of failing to disclose funding from corporations in his research.  We don’t seem to know if the funding was for any of the research but to the left-wing climate radicals, that doesn’t really matter.

This isn’t about climate folks.   This never was.   It is about politics and enacting a totalitarian style socialist government with the same faux democracy you see in China and North Korea.  It is an openly visible government plot to gain ever more power.  Driven by bureaucrats personally incentivized by the massive money and power government offers.   It IS LED by liberal “progressive” Democrats and it is leading to a very bad place.   Unfortunately, no political party is immune from power and the two primary parties we get to pick from are just different rates of change in the same very bad direction.  Don’t believe me, then you need to learn your history better.   You have been duped.

We are losing our freedoms in America at a massive rate, the internet just took a huge and completely unnecessary blow today.  The unelected portion of the government gave itself the power to tax, regulate, limit and redistribute internet access.   How long until we find preferred content getting favorable treatment.  No Jeff, that would be illegal!  If you think like that, you are again wrong… ever hear of the IRS. Are you really naive enough to believe that tax laws aren’t used as a political weapon? —I doubt it. Americans have no clue how much of their own medical freedoms they have just lost either, and it will be decades before they really figure it out.  The massive tax increases which were finally enacted last year are already having a huge impact on businesses and employment.  I have personal experience with that particular impact.  Not that people care about business when the government adjusts the government employment performance numbers to hide their failure.

So illegal aliens being converted to automatic citizens while leaving the border open.   Does anyone really believe that is for anything except automatic votes?  Free social security, medicaid and health care for them.   How about the new push to have 16 and 17 year olds vote?  That shouldn’t tweak the numbers in the liberals favor should it?   It is about power and votes and guaranteed continuation of both…. nothing else.  Hmmm.. I recall hearing about that same sort of voting system in some other country?..

I’ve been personally attacked in two left-wing psychology papers in journals because liberals don’t like that I speak out against the lies of climate science, and they obviously fear me (and you).  There is no other reason to call out my name and imply some sort of delusional personality disorder to me.   It is these same selfish, self-serving progressives who are doing it for the money.  NO business organization would pay multiple millions of dollars for poor class of work created by Michael Mann or Lewandowsky.  In the GOVERNMENT funded world, their mathmagical masturbation can be held up as the best in class, published in the compliant left-wing media and distributed as fact to increase law and regulations by government organizations. To government employees, that sort of nonsense actually has a real value!

Literally hundreds of billions of dollars in government money is funneled to left-wing extremists posing as scientists.   The money doesn’t change their minds, the “scientists” were already that biased, many were already willing to lie or exaggerate for the “cause”.   These are the people who get preferentially paid over their now nearly extinct colleagues who won’t repeat the complete bovine scatology that climate models are somehow working.   Or somehow models haven’t badly overstated the climate sensitivity to CO2 (as several fake papers have tried to claim), or the ridiculous claims of more extreme weather which has been recorded EXACTLY NOWHERE ON THE PLANET.

Theses are false unscientific lies published in droves by the IPCC, the EPA, the LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRAT PARTY etc….. The liberals are the ones saddling us with these massive losses of freedom across the board.  They are the ones twisting every law for purposes of guaranteed election wins.   They are the ones attempting to prevent funding of any group which doesn’t promote increased government control of every aspect of our lives.  They are the ones poisoning our population with unhireable moronic dependents who drop out of highschool and will never do anything except collect government checks and stay home — until its time to vote democratic.  Seriously, have you ever hired an employee that can’t read?   I’ve tried.  He made it a few weeks too.

EPA,FCC,IRS,ATF,IPCC,WHO,etc… on and on and on.. Hundreds of billions of tax dollars, stolen from industry and handed over to corrupt liberals.  That is who is doing this, and NO that doesn’t make the conservatives clean, but it does make them better than the other guy.

How may of those corrupt, fraudulent, left-wing extremist scientists disclosed their obvious conflicts of interest in receiving government money when publishing their fake work?  How many disclosed their side business money, because it seems pretty clear from basic research that near half receive side money for speaking on climate, conferences, personal green business ventures, etc…   Not nearly as many as should disclose, that’s for sure.

The government money is creating and empowering the fraud — INTENTIONALLY!  This is not an accident. The purpose of the climate science exaggerations from the government perspective, is reduced freedom and increased government power.   That is the value of the exaggerations on climate, and that is what we are being taxed for. There is nothing else in climate science that you really need to know.

So YES I’m pissed off about the Soon thing or investigations of Pielke, Spencer or Curry.  It is a blatant left-wing political attempt to prevent them from receiving any funding at all by marginalizing companies who would contribute. To put fear in the hearts of their employers and chill any dissent to their pro-regulation plans.  And in the case of Peilke Sr., stunts like this have worked and he is not publishing anything in climate anymore.

We are in big, big trouble as a country, as the damage the progressive liberals are doing in centralizing all control is nearly irreversible barring a major civil war.   I fear for our children and grandchildren.  My international readers shouldn’t take it as some kind of American hubris when I point out that the loss of American freedom is a very bad thing for the rest of the world.

It is an ugly place when universally left-wing government officials with no personal skin in the game make decisions about every aspect of our lives.  We will see soon enough and hopefully we will still be smart enough to figure out what happened.   I would write that if you are voting for these people it’s time to wake up but really it is already way too late for that.   We are already on that rollercoaster and the car has left the gate.

 

 

Posted in Uncategorized | 27 Comments »

Paul Matthews — A Journal Publication on the Air Vent Reader Background Thread

Posted by Jeff Id on February 11, 2015

How can you start an anonymous blog, writing on a topic of science, with near zero advertising and expect to have any readers.   Seriously, the first article I wrote here had like 9 views in 24 hours!  The unlikely visitors were probably looking for furnace vents or something. It hardly justified the time put into writing but everyone has an opinion so better out than in right….   Well this is a lot of years later and after some time this blog was blessed with a lot of readers. As Paul Matthews paper demonstrates, the readership here was far from an average slice of the population.   The comment level was so high on this (and other skeptic blogs), that I started a reader background thread to capture the social profile of what is happening.  It quickly became one of my favorite threads here and I put a permanent link to it at the top of the page. Reader Paul Matthews found the thread interesting enough that he has written — and published — a journal article describing distribution of the skeptical blog community and unsurprisingly to those who have traversed these pages, it is comprised of a group of highly educated and extremely scientific individuals.

A link to Paul Matthews announcement of publication is here .  A preprint version of the article is online here:

At his blog, Paul writes:

A little over a year ago I noticed a call from the journal Environmental Communication for a special issue of articles on “Climate change communication and the internet”.  For some time I had been thinking vaguely about writing something about the interesting Reader Background thread at Jeff Condon’s Air Vent blog, so I wrote a paper on this and sent it to the journal.

 

Some interesting quotes:

A particularly striking aspect of the comments on the Reader Background thread is
the high level of educational background. Forty of the 154 sceptics state that they have
a PhD degree. Of these, 12 are in chemistry, 8 in some form of engineering, 8 in physics,
4 in mathematics, 3 in biological sciences, and the remaining 5 in arts subjects, computer
science, economics or unspecified. A further 11 contributors cite an MSc degree as their
highest educational level, while three have an MBA. Of the remainder, 46 have a BSc and
14 a BA degree.

This relatively high proportion of contributors who changed their opinion substan-
tially on the issue of climate change does not provide support for the hypothesis that
the views of individuals are largely determined by their worldview or cultural background
(Kahan et al., 2012; Poortinga et al., 2011), and fits better with the view of Smith and
Leiserowitz (2012) that worldview and political ideology are minor factors.
..
This emphasis on scientific details is to be expected given the scientific focus of this
particular blog and the high level of scientific and technical background of the commenters,
noted in the previous section. In this regard, the blog is typical: a survey of climate sceptic
blogs found that the most prominent of these generally tend to concentrate on scientific
aspects of the climate debate (Sharman, 2013)
I couldn’t agree more that the skeptical climate blogs are typically very high science content.  This is true even in comparison to the AGW advocacy groups like the ironically named “skeptical science”.  While tAV readers of the past and present are my personal favorites😉,   the concept Paul Matthews expresses of high education and limited bias holds true across most skeptic blogs.  The Blackboard, Climate Audit, Tallbloke, Judith Curry, WUWT, Lubos Motl’, Brandon Shollenberger, Trees for the Forest, Jo Nova, on and on and on….. The readership and authorship is educated and intelligent far beyond what is generally portrayed in media. The reality is that the threads of these blogs often contain as much or more information than the posts.
.
I was very much surprised to see a publication on the Air Vent thread, (at least one which doesn’t involve accusations of a nonsense conspiracy theory) and am especially pleased to see the recognition of quality of the readership here and skeptical blogs in general.  As the article notes, the Air Vent has seen better days.  It leaves me longing for the old days when our company was smaller and I had more time for serious climate study.  The recognition of the readership of these blogs is the real story and that is well past due.
 .
Congratulations to Paul Matthews et al. and even more to the general open-minded climate community.

Posted in Uncategorized | 27 Comments »

Freshwater Oceans at Work

Posted by Jeff Id on January 8, 2015

My wife found this really cool MODIS picture of the great lakes dumping mounds of global warming in our back yard.

lake-effect-satellite-final.jpg
The high resolution satellite image from January 7, 2015 shows the lake effect clouds on the downwind side of each Great Lake. (MODIS- University of Wisconsin)

Posted in Uncategorized | 21 Comments »

 
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