the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Posts Tagged ‘antarctic’

Evidence of Sea Contamination In Antarctic Sat Data

Posted by Jeff Id on March 16, 2009

Know your data!

It’s the first rule of any engineering project you undertake. Mistakes often happen at the base level of data collection, errors in the early stages propagate through a project once the data is accepted, the effects of which are often misunderstood or unquantified. Nobody is immune to this of course, it’s just a point I want to make. From an engineering standpoint, it means heavy verification, often multiple times until you’re sure that your answer is reasonable. In my world if I’m wrong, things don’t work and big money is flushed down the toilet. In climatology if they are wrong and it is pointed out, there is little recourse or concession of the mistake. It would just be another messed up science if the politicians and polyscienticians weren’t forcing ridiculous policies down our throats, but that’s another story.

Jeff C found a site on the NSIDC where they provide AVHRR satellite data from 1982 to 2004. This data is monthly data which means daily cloud masking and error correction have already occurred. The masking is different than Steig used in his Antarctic paper and it may have had a substantial impact but at least we have a point of reference. There are several questions to answer, are 3 pc’s enough to represent the data, are the trends similar to the presented trends, are there other problems in the data.

Honestly, I’ve spent many hours now looking at the data and while I don’t have the answers to all these questions, there will be some interesting things over the next week or two. I really need to send Christmas cards to the team for all the entertainment they provide.

Jeff C deserves enormous credit for accessing and processing the data, we did work on it together but there were big hours spent in analysis and verification. Anyway, instead of getting too far ahead of myself and into some of the incomplete but still interesting finds I’ve decided to catch my readers up.

Below is a movie of the skin surface temperature of the Antarctic. Watch the video a couple of times and you may see some interesting features.

sat-data-movie

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Antarctic Temperature RegEm Forensics

Posted by Jeff Id on February 13, 2009

Thanks to Molan Labe who was quite helpful in identifying what I believe is the correct coefficient into regparm for the purposes of recreating the RegEm calculations. After some considerable time I am still not able to recreate the results of Steig’s paper perfectly, but as you can see below, I am fairly close.

First let’s look at the mean trend of the reconstructed AWS station data by Steig. All data used was from the Climate Audit directory (thanks to Steve McIntyre) so the updated reconstructions and data are not involved.

steig-recon-trend-a

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Surface Station Data

Posted by Jeff Id on February 12, 2009

Surface stations were used in the Antarctic with RegEm to infill satellite and AWS data for the establishment of the warming trend.  This is the data used in the final reconstruction.  It is much more complete than the AWS data so I plotted all of the trends to see what they look like.  I had to calculate my own anomaly this time so I used a monthly mean method and subtracted it from the temp data to create the black curves below.  These plots are typical to the data and represent the set  pretty well as far as completeness.

surface-anomaly-vs-surf-dat-89022

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Antarctic Just Won’t Melt

Posted by Jeff Id on December 1, 2008

On Digital Diatribes blog, our friend noticed a disturbing trend in antarctic temperature data. It seems to be out of compliance with global warming. Check it out at the link below.

2008 Update on Antarctic Temperatures – RSS

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Antarctic Sea Ice Grows as a Result of Global Warming???!

Posted by Jeff Id on September 13, 2008

I’m starting to think Rush Limbaugh’s assertion that global warming is a religion might be on the money.  Check out this article from—-

“The amount of sea ice around Antarctica has grown in recent Septembers in what could be an unusual side-effect of global warming, experts say.

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