the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Posts Tagged ‘hockey’

Mann 08 Temperature Reconstruction Using Less Than 11% of the Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 27, 2008

I’m sorry for the delay in posting. In my previous articles, I found out that not only does selecting proxies based on correlation in noisy data create a distortion in temperature scale, the distortion can be calculated!

If you’re like I was and you need to catch up on what is going on here are some links.

Ten Things Everyone Should Know About the Global Warming Hockey Stick

The Flaw in the Math Behind Every Hockey Stick

Temperature Scale Distortion in Hockey Sticks

It became a bit of an obsession to me to prove out this mathematical distortion of temperature scale but I couldn’t do it to any graphs without knowing the weights applied to different proxies in a reconstruciton. Climate Audit will eventually be able to reconstruct Mann08 using the information and software provided generously by Mann. I am not being facetious about the generosity, I say that because Climate Audit was started and fueled by the lack of transparency in this science. In the past almost no information was given out. This is certainly due to the efforts of Steve McI and group at climate audit. Whether you agree with them or not, you have to give credit for an improvement in transparency in this field. Still, in Mann 08 there are many things which have been left out and mixed up. This makes reconstruction of his work and comparison of some of the decisions he made with the statistics extremely difficult to verify.

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Temperature Scale Distortion in Hockey Sticks

Posted by Jeff Id on September 24, 2008

Just a short post today. I am tired from working on this for so long. I have been analysing and trying different things so I get a good feel for how the historical data in from what I know, every hockey stick temperature graph ever produced is actually on a different scale from the “CALIBRATION PERIOD”.

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The Flaw in the Math Behind the Hockey Stick

Posted by Jeff Id on September 23, 2008

When I did this post it was just the beginning of what I found out. Thanks to dogooza for the RC link. To see the true fallacy of the Mann08 math in detail go to this more recent post.

Will the Real Hockey Stick Please Stand Up?

On Sept 11 of 08 I finally understood how hockey stick temperature graphs are being produced. At that time I made bold statements on several blogs that you can’t do that because the historic temperatures are on a different scale than local temperatures (last 100 years). They were rightfully ignored since I had no data to back them up. Now it’s different!

If you don’t know about proxy temperature reconstruction, that’s a mouthful go to this link first then come back. Ten Things Everyone Should Know About the Global Warming Hockey Stick

Today, I have put together a clear demonstration of why all of these sorted temperature reconstructions are flawed!

From my previous post How Come So Many Independant Papers Claim Hockey Sticks I made this graph showing random red noise data.

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How Come So Many Independent Papers Claim Hockey Sticks

Posted by Jeff Id on September 22, 2008

Ok, I have wanted to do this post since I figured out what is actually going on with the hockey stick graphs. The argument these days is that there are many papers which have repeatedly generated hockey sticks based on temperature proxies. First let me explain what a temperature proxy is and why these papers claim that we are warmer than the past 2000 years. If you already know this stuff skip to the third paragraph.

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Online Experiment With the Latest Hockey Stick

Posted by Jeff Id on September 20, 2008

Ok, two days ago I published a report on the data called The All Important Blade of the Stick Uses Less Than 5% of the Data This report detailed what I consider powerful evidence that Mann and his group may have intentionally manipulated data in creating this paper.  I don’t say this lightly.

It is very clear that the proxies, which no one is sure represent temperature, were in fact extended using questionable statistics and then correlated to demonstrate that they match measured temperature. The addition of an up slope to 90% of the data was pasted on according to less than 5% of the data.  I am very suspicious that this 5% was chosen specifically because of its up slope in recent times. Think about that only 55 series determined the outcome of the majority of the 1209 series data!!

What really tipped it though was that Mann and crew made graphs like this one below.  I don’t care how good of a statistician you think you are, the PINK extension of this graph is obvious CRAP and has absolutely nothing to do with temperature. A four year old child can pick out that the graph below isn’t quite right!

So, my suspicions are so great now that I am putting my butt on the line here.

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Global Warming Takes a Shot in the Globes

Posted by Jeff Id on September 12, 2008

After a decade of wrecking Michael Mann’s preeminent papers which defined the hockey stick, Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick got a bit of help this week. After his first hockey stick paper was made famous, McIntyre and McKitrick diligently worked for years to discredit what was obviously a scientifically invalid paper. The hockey stick was made famous first by the UN IPCC and then more so by Al Gore. … with unintentional support from Wayne Gretsky and Steve Yzerman.

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Ten Things Everyone Should Know About the Global Warming Hockey Stick

Posted by Jeff Id on September 11, 2008

Most of us have seen a ‘hockey stick’ graph like the one below indicating temperature. It and others like it have been repeatedly used to demonstrate the recent warming of the earth. But how was it created? Certainly there were no thermometers being recorded in 1000 AD.

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Hockey Stick Sorting Rejected High Frequency Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 9, 2008

Something else I saw.  Look at the 3 graphs of the cherry pick the Mann analysis did.

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P Value Correlation, Who wants a backward hockeystick anyway?

Posted by Jeff Id on September 5, 2008

I found the following paragraph from the latest Mann paper interesting.

Reconstructions were performed based on both the ‘‘full’’ proxy
data network and on a ‘‘screened’’ network (Table S1) consisting of
only those proxies that pass a screening process for a local surfacetemperature
signal. The screening process requires a statistically
significant (P  0.10) correlation with local instrumental surfacetemperature
data during the calibration interval. Where the sign of
the correlation could a priori be specified (positive for tree-ring
data, ice-core oxygen isotopes, lake sediments, and historical documents,
and negative for coral oxygen-isotope records), a one-sided
significance criterion was used. Otherwise, a two-sided significance
criterion was used. Further details of the screening procedure are
provided in SI Text.

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How to Make a Hockey Stick – Paleoclimatology (What they don’t want you to know)

Posted by Jeff Id on September 4, 2008

I just learned something today which has left a sick feeling in my stomach.  I learned how the latest Mann et al hockey stick graph was created.  So you don’t have to read the paper HERE, I’m going to summarize the result.

This time Mann avoided all the tree ring reconstructions from the old hockey stick because of a problem with what is termed Divergence.  Divergence means the data don’t correlate well in recent times (last 130 years).  Scientists know that a high percentage of trees “temperature” data don’t fit well when compared to the warming trend of earth – measured data.   To sort the data, they correlate the data, which is very noisy and doesn’t look like a temperature measurement at all by measuring its statistical significance to the 130 year measured temperature record.  Data which doesn’t match to a minimal extent with current temperatures is rejected.  The remaining data sets are averaged together (often using very strange techniques) to create a final signal.

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The Death and Resurrection of the Hockey Stick – “The Jesus Paper”

Posted by Jeff Id on August 31, 2008

A great article on the history of the hockey stick temperature reconstruction and the great service that Steve McIntyre has done for climate science. This is a well written clear example of how climate change science is political rather than scientific.

Bishop Hill blog HERE

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