the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Posts Tagged ‘mann’

Famous Hockey Sticks in History

Posted by Jeff Id on October 15, 2008

I do love hockey, it is by far my favorite sport. Probably half of my Canadian readers will stop reading when I say that I am a huge Red Wings fan.

If you came here looking for a NHL discussion though, I apologize this post is about how the false mathematics behind the most famous hockey stick temperature curves.

This post like many others here is in response to a request. This time instead of odd linear curves I used GISS (ground instrument) temperature with the 1357 M08 proxies before infilling. Which means “as close as I can get right now to the real data.”

This post clearly shows that actual HS data can be made to support any conclusion. Hockey stick graphs are not temperature whatsoever but are in fact representations of the statistical distortion created by mathematical sorting of random or near random data.

This entire post is actual proxy data from M08. I used CPS methods recommended in the latest hockey stick paper and many before it to produce these graphs.

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MXD Tree Removal Service (Choppin Wood off A Hockey Stick)

Posted by Jeff Id on October 5, 2008

We found out last week that Shweingruber MXD series had some very unusual things done to it.  Series were cut off at 1960 and new fake data was pasted on the ends.  The fake data of course correlated well to temperature and over 90% of the series passed correlation.  The comments regarding the data warned that data after 1960, temperature records were mathematically incorporated in the series.

The values after 1960 are a combination of information from high-frequency MXD variations and low-frequency instrumental temperature variations. We recommend, therefore, that the post-1960 values be deleted or ignored in any analysis that might be biased by the inclusion of this observed temperature information, such as the calibration of these data to form a climate reconstruction, or comparision of these data with instrumental climate observations for the purpose of assessing the ability of these data to represent temperature variability.

I got this gorgeous quote from Climate Audit which was copied from the original data site.  What they are saying is don’t correlate the data because you may accept too much of it, leading to criticisms.  However, the added temp info didn’t really help too much.

The line to the right shows the difference between the actual series data and the data used.   The blue line to the right of the yellow DOES NOT EXIST because it is faked in using a BS statistical process.  The purple line is the actual data with the information to the right incorporating temperature to try and help it out.

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Who’s the Mann, a Skepics Sarcastic Rant on AGW Scatology

Posted by Jeff Id on September 29, 2008

A great article from the cultural and scientific center of the universe Pakistan.

The last sentence just hurts to read. Ok, you mean the same pattern I just spent the last two weeks extracting from random data. The same pattern which can be so easily produced from random noise it happens on accident! How flat does that sentence ring now.

I just want to translate that last sentence into “Reality speak”

Now the scientists who studied randomly chosen graphs and produced the original and now defunct hockey stick have done a new study using more randomly chosen graphs from anywhere they could dig them up and using similarly flawed statistical processes produced a shiny new hockey stick.

I like my sentence better.

Out of possibly legal obligations to the stenographer disguised as a reporter who wrote the original article here is the stupid LINK.

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Mann 08 Series Weight Per Year

Posted by Jeff Id on September 28, 2008

As many of you are aware I was able to reconstruct Mann 08 by back caclulation tachnique. I used the known output graph for the northern hemisphere as provided by mann and the proxies provided by Mann to determine weighting for each proxy — no easy task. But after many hours of work I came up with this graph.

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Mann 08 Temperature Reconstruction Using Less Than 11% of the Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 27, 2008

I’m sorry for the delay in posting. In my previous articles, I found out that not only does selecting proxies based on correlation in noisy data create a distortion in temperature scale, the distortion can be calculated!

If you’re like I was and you need to catch up on what is going on here are some links.

Ten Things Everyone Should Know About the Global Warming Hockey Stick

The Flaw in the Math Behind Every Hockey Stick

Temperature Scale Distortion in Hockey Sticks

It became a bit of an obsession to me to prove out this mathematical distortion of temperature scale but I couldn’t do it to any graphs without knowing the weights applied to different proxies in a reconstruciton. Climate Audit will eventually be able to reconstruct Mann08 using the information and software provided generously by Mann. I am not being facetious about the generosity, I say that because Climate Audit was started and fueled by the lack of transparency in this science. In the past almost no information was given out. This is certainly due to the efforts of Steve McI and group at climate audit. Whether you agree with them or not, you have to give credit for an improvement in transparency in this field. Still, in Mann 08 there are many things which have been left out and mixed up. This makes reconstruction of his work and comparison of some of the decisions he made with the statistics extremely difficult to verify.

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Online Experiment With the Latest Hockey Stick

Posted by Jeff Id on September 20, 2008

Ok, two days ago I published a report on the data called The All Important Blade of the Stick Uses Less Than 5% of the Data This report detailed what I consider powerful evidence that Mann and his group may have intentionally manipulated data in creating this paper.  I don’t say this lightly.

It is very clear that the proxies, which no one is sure represent temperature, were in fact extended using questionable statistics and then correlated to demonstrate that they match measured temperature. The addition of an up slope to 90% of the data was pasted on according to less than 5% of the data.  I am very suspicious that this 5% was chosen specifically because of its up slope in recent times. Think about that only 55 series determined the outcome of the majority of the 1209 series data!!

What really tipped it though was that Mann and crew made graphs like this one below.  I don’t care how good of a statistician you think you are, the PINK extension of this graph is obvious CRAP and has absolutely nothing to do with temperature. A four year old child can pick out that the graph below isn’t quite right!

So, my suspicions are so great now that I am putting my butt on the line here.

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The All Important Blade of the Stick Uses Less Than 5% of the Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 18, 2008

Many of you saw my graph of the net effect of the extrapolated “projected” data used in Mann 08 in my post titled Mann 08 – Variable Data. What was not clear at the time to me was how this data was created and why.  I think this post clears it up a bit!

The graph below is the last graph from the post, which indicates that a strong positive weighting was added to about 1100 of 1209 series which in reality had no data at these points.  The graph is here.  You can think of it as a summation of the “added in” data divided by the 1083 series that the extrapolation procedure was used on.  This represents all of the data which was never measured but was used in the correlation for the hockey stick.

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Mann 08 – Variable Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 16, 2008

Recently Michael Mann published his latest version of the hockey stick, claiming boldly that now he can reconstruct temperatures back into the last milleneum with high accuracy. Unlike before, Dr Mann published his data and software for everyone to see. Unfortunately, he published an original dataset which he re-published less than a day later. Thanks to climate audit, I have obtained a copy of the original deleted data and have done a comparison from the original to the actual data used below. Keep in mind, all these comparisons are actually between THE SAME DATA!!

The first dataset is a series of 1209 data series captured and archived by ClimateAudit when the data was released.  The second set was 1347 data series published (by accident I assume) on the NOAA server and is at the link ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/mann2008.

Now that I have some software tools built and I took a short look at what wasn’t used in the latest hockey stick in my previous post. I thought it might be useful to make sure that the original (deleted) data matched the 1209 used proxies. As Steve McIntyre already noticed there are some problems.

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Global Warming Proxies – Europe vs America

Posted by Jeff Id on September 10, 2008

LeeW asked me to plot European vs US data according to the following coordinates.

This could be kind of fun…

How about 20DN to 50DN and 70DW to 120DW (pretty much N. America)

and also 35DN to 65DN and 8DW to 50DE (Europe)

Not knowing what to expect, I set the software flags and generated this graph.

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Hockey Stick Sorting Rejected High Frequency Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 9, 2008

Something else I saw.  Look at the 3 graphs of the cherry pick the Mann analysis did.

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Mann’s Statistical Amplification of Local Data

Posted by Jeff Id on September 8, 2008

Ok, now I am getting closer.  After scaling the data in SD units from 1400-1800 and averaging both the 484 series from the accepted Mann paper data and 1209 series from the total set I got this plot.

We can see that the data in the calibration period is clearly amplified, pressing slightly lower at 1850 and substantially higher in 2000 as compared to the average.  I found it interesting that this also magnified the 200-750 year data as well, since there is not as much data here the individual series can make a big difference.  This next graph plots the difference between accepted and total data and rejected and total data.

For those who don’t (and don’t want to ) live in paleoclimatology  (ancient temperature reconstruction), there have been temperature measurements for 140 years.  The data below was sorted out from a huge pile of scrambled noise to produce……..the hockey stick.   In order to make the stick the author Michael Mann needed to do some statistical wizardry.   The most important part of the graphs below

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Global Warming – Cookin’ the Books

Posted by Jeff Id on September 7, 2008

This paper is about how the hockey stick temperature graph was invented through bad science and continues to get worse.

I started this blog because I wanted to use my science background to  add my two cents about things which were bothering me in the news.  I couldn’t take it all out on my family after all.  At first my posts were intended to demonstrate how the anthropogenic global warming guys were hyping the data and I quickly found at its roots of a massive network of government organizations who’s survival and continued power depend on man made global warming to survive.  As I got deeper I found that it is actually more than a hundred billion dollar industry now and expanding rapidly.

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Luterbacher’s Contribution

Posted by Jeff Id on September 6, 2008

I am sitting around playing with the data, now that I can see it.  This is the Luterbacher data (which passed) any of the three magic sorting tests, scaled according to the standard deviation from 1400 to 1800.  I haven’t worked through the data enough to understand everything but one thing is for sure, Luterbacher contributes significantly to the overall peak in recent times.  The next thing I am going to work on is verification and then I might do some curve fitting.  The green curve represents a 9 year square filter.

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A Summation of the Mann Data on Global Warming

Posted by Jeff Id on September 6, 2008

I have been working hard on importing and plotting the Mann data.  This represents the first attempt.  I weighted the graph in SD units from a SD calc on 1400-1800, the data was not filtered intentionally as I wanted to see the actual this time.

I think there are some very interesting features like the spike at about 580 AD but I need some more experienced individuals to check the graph.  Also, any help in separating proxy from measured data as well as bad proxies for removal would be appreciated.

If we can trust the proxies I think this graph shows the magnitude of the temperature change from past to present more reasonably than the Mann paper.  In order to complete this though I need to remove any directly measured data (which ones are they) and data which is known to have problems.  After that I want to do smoothed and raw plots and correlations.  It should be interesting.

This is very preliminary data, i haven’t had time to confirm every calculation but I think it is good.

This seems to me to be a more reasonable way to view long term trends.  After the few incorrect (contaminated) records are removed we should be able to make some conclusions from this.  Also, I need some help getting the regional temerature curves imported if someone can, I would like to reproduce the Mann calcs as well.

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Climate hottest for 1300 years – The Second Coming?

Posted by Jeff Id on September 3, 2008

Ok, Mann is at it again. The hockey stick guy who created the graph used by Al Gore and the IPCC to create the widely discredited hockey stick graph. Already caught one time by Steve McIntyre cherry picking the data to create false statistical values has gone one step further. To read about how the scientifically corrupt IPCC brought the hockey stick back from the dead go HERE. I took the text below from an article HERE.

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