the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Posts Tagged ‘reconstruction’

P Value Correlation, Who wants a backward hockeystick anyway?

Posted by Jeff Id on September 5, 2008

I found the following paragraph from the latest Mann paper interesting.

Reconstructions were performed based on both the ‘‘full’’ proxy
data network and on a ‘‘screened’’ network (Table S1) consisting of
only those proxies that pass a screening process for a local surfacetemperature
signal. The screening process requires a statistically
significant (P  0.10) correlation with local instrumental surfacetemperature
data during the calibration interval. Where the sign of
the correlation could a priori be specified (positive for tree-ring
data, ice-core oxygen isotopes, lake sediments, and historical documents,
and negative for coral oxygen-isotope records), a one-sided
significance criterion was used. Otherwise, a two-sided significance
criterion was used. Further details of the screening procedure are
provided in SI Text.

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The Death and Resurrection of the Hockey Stick – “The Jesus Paper”

Posted by Jeff Id on August 31, 2008

A great article on the history of the hockey stick temperature reconstruction and the great service that Steve McIntyre has done for climate science. This is a well written clear example of how climate change science is political rather than scientific.

Bishop Hill blog HERE

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