Unlike 99.99 percent of the population, tAV readers have a problem. Many of us have received the unfortunate gift affliction that we understand science and statistics. I thought this was an awesome condition of mine when I was younger. I can almost feel good math, once the arcane rune-like symbols have been properly resolved into human thought. That is why evolution is such a certainty and paleoclimatology is so flatulently ignorant. It is also why, when I see a vote fraud graph with a subset of voters over 10 sigma off the curve, I’m really not ever going to remotely accept that it is good data. It also creates a certain separation from the group-think.
Masks never worked to affect COVID disease spread in any measurable way. This surprised me as I’ve written many times. Plenty of science to show that. Lockdowns did worse than not work, not that it matters to these chicken brain geniuses who would force whatever cause on us in exchange for paychecks.
Now, in addition to poor vax immunity, we even have vaccine enhanced disease. Using the mRNA vax, the body has been trained to fight a very specific strain of the spike protein, and that viral protein was therefore forced by all known physics, to evolve into something else. Very basic stuff – mathematically and the process was well-tracked by medicine with first 20 then 30 and now over 50 mutations on just the spike protein. What isn’t obvious to me is why does that make the vaccinated worse off? (there is other science which shows this) Why can’t the body just fight the new virus just like it did the old one? Is there a limit to how many antibodies can be produced and the body is over trained by the vaccines? Is there so much similarity between the two that when the evolved vaccine-resistant virus is sometimes attacked, new antibodies are not created?
Well, I’m naturally immune, not because god gave me immunity at day 1, as some imagine it works. That is not what ‘natural immunity’ even means, but because I had the damn thing before it was cool. I was vaccinated by God, before anyone was even talking about it.
Wasn’t bad, wasn’t great.
The Michigan government is running a feeling-ad which has some black doctor lady preaching fear today.
About a virus we’ve had for 3 years.
For Phizer/Moderna etc..
I’m very, very tired of stupid people, unqualified for their positions, telling us to do very dumb things.
Everything in science shows these vaccines have gone past their prime as the virus quickly evolved around them – as expected and predicted by many doctors and at least one aero engineer. German data, which seems cleaner than the US, shows that they are causing a lot of death due to massive clotting. Take it at your own consideration, don’t listen too hard to fake doctors. If you have really bad pre-existing nonsense, you may want to. I will not.
the Air Vent 
Some VERY interesting reading in this morning’s “Covid and Coffee Newsletter”
Beyond my pay grade (forwarded to ****) but the introduction –
“What if the clinical trials measured the wrong antibody? And what if the jabs are changing people’s immune response to produce the wrong antibodies? Then what? New studies.”
“A new mystery is again baffling the experts, the same now-confounded experts who were 100% sure they knew how to get out of the pandemic. To set the holiday table, consider this random selection of very recent headlines, while keeping in mind that we’re two years into the miraculous-vaccine regime, and are now on the seventh booster shot.
You’ll also note that all these stories appeared in local media, and not corporate media.”
This goes with that –
“Well, here’s the medical facts that entirely explain why people with more shots get more covid.”
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=247709
Just what we wanted to hear (/s)
Goes with that
“The trainwreck of all trainwrecks: Billions of people stuck with a broken immune response”
https://www.rintrah.nl/the-trainwreck-of-all-trainwrecks-billions-of-people-stuck-with-a-broken-immune-response/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
It’s very sad. I am truly glad that I didn’t jump in when the fascists told me I wouldn’t be able to work at my own company without a vax. My plan was to resign my job, but show up to work anyway. As an owner, I have that ability.
Be afraid. Be very, very afraid.
And don’t let anyone vaxed into your shelter – ’cause they might be shedding and they can def be tracked by their implanted microchip.
Oh, and these guys are clearly in on the conspiracy.
More proof of the conspiracy!
Jeff and Ian: Thanks for introducing me to the data showing that an apparent reduction in protection associated with repeated vaccination and introducing me to class switching upon repeated vaccination. The Science paper on class switching is linked below. The paper doesn’t speculated about whether or not class switching reduces protection. A simple answer is that antibodies that bind to the spike protein and prevent it from being used to enter cells through the ACE2 receptor – neutralizing antibodies – all do the same thing regardless of class. Non-neutralizing antibodies made as part of a natural polyclonal response to infection work activating other parts of the immune system and there class-switching could be important.
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciimmunol.ade2798
The data showing increasing infection with increasing vaccination does not come from a “properly-controlled” random-assignment study. The groups receiving more vaccinations are likely older, almost certainly have less protection from natural infection and may be more likely to have results RECORDED from positive tests for antigen or PCR tests. If the original clinical trials that began with random-assignment into double-blind vaccine or placebo groups were still running and the vaccine group had randomly received booster or placebo up to three times, the difference in current infection rate would be meaningful. Unfortunately, denying the placebo group access to an efficacious vaccine for two years during a pandemic would be totally unethical, and no such a study would ever be done in any civilized country.
However, we have been following the occurrence of breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals for almost two years. We know that when the level of neutralizing antibodies falls through a critical range, the incidence of breakthrough infections increases. So the level of neutralizing antibodies is now an established “surrogate marker” for resistance to infection. Boosters were approved (rightly or wrongly) without massive clinical trials showing reduction in infection by showing that a booster raises the level of neutralizing antibodies above the level needed for significant protection against infection and the level associated with reduced hospitalization or death. The concentration of antibody needed for neutralization of different variants can be established by in vitro experiments.
What is different today is that a much larger fraction of the population has suffered from an Omicron infection, which was unknown when antibody levels were developed as a “surrogate marker” to demonstrate that vaccines are efficacious in the community. And the problem with getting immunity from a natural infection is the COST: The case fatality rate peaked at 2.5% during the Omicron surge and has been between 0.3% and 1.0% ever since. Natural infection is an INSANE way to acquire immunity when a vaccine is available – at least for those who are vulnerable. Now we do know that we are detecting a much smaller fraction of infections these days and the correct metric for the true cost of acquiring immunity is the IFR. Denmark had a great surveillance system that recorded a cumulative 45% of the population testing positive during the Omicron surge and they still had a CFR of 0.3% to 0.6% during the surge and their IFR could be only half of that.
So, what I would like to have seen in the Cleveland Clinic paper (with increasing infections with increasing vaccination) is antibody data. Regardless of how many boosters one may have had, does the level of neutralizing antibodies still predict whether one is being protected by getting a booster??? And to understand that, we will probably also need to measure the level of antibodies from natural infection that complicate this analysis. Perhaps boosters are of little value to people who have suffered a natural infection in the past 6 months or a year. Despite the data in this paper, it would be shocking to find that increased levels of neutralizing antibodies is not associated with a decrease in infections or hospitalization when antibodies from natural infection are low. It might be possible to only give boosters to those whose natural antibodies are low. Mine probably are – so far I’ve never tested positive.
Click to access 2022.12.17.22283625v1.full.pdf
Frank –
Here’s my understanding. Please correct me regarding what I don’t have right.
No one actually knows, yet, know to what degree nABs correlate with protection against infection. And I would certainly expect that the extent to which they do, is going to vary significantly across individuals with their idiosyncratic immune systems, across varying magnitude of exposure to infectious particles, across varying conditions under which they were exposed, etc. And the extent to which an infection, in particular, will create nABs will vary across individual and across infection – but I would imagine also for vaccinations if less so than with infections (because compared to infections the variables regarding type of exposure will be more uniform).
Oh, and Jeff, just ’cause I know you so looked the previous video I linked by this guy (why else did uuyou completely misrepresented what he said)?
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05522-2
From your bud Andrew Huff:
Also from your bud:
Jeff: If I understand correctly, it takes about a week for the immune system to identify an antibody that binds with high affinity to an antigen like the spike protein and then amplify the cells that produce a tight binding antibody. When the immune system encounters that antigen again, it doesn’t need to go through the selection step and can simply amplify the cells producing the same antibody. And we the immune system encounters a mutated antigen that is only modestly different, it MOSTLY produces antibodies that bind most tightly to the original antigen rather than going to the time and trouble of selecting new antibodies that bind tighter to the new antigen. This some times called “original antigenic sin”.
However, this problem occurs with antibodies made following vaccination with an mRNA AND following natural infection. The mammalian immune system has been battling mutating viruses and dealing with this weakness for tens of millions of years. Getting a large number of less optimal antibodies sooner may a good strategy for dealing with the the typical mutations that develop in viruses. Furthermore, the immune system doesn’t select just one antibody one time, During the course of a normal illness and for a while thereafter, the immune system further optimizes the antibodies. So, as best I can tell, the problem of original antigenic sin actually does improve over time. I think that this is why the vaccine advisory committee chose a bivalent vaccine with a spike protein from the B5 sub variant for the most recent round of boosters.
Furthermore, the immune system makes T-cells in addition to antibodies, but you hear most about antibodies because they are easy to assay.
The covid vax makers are in deep crap. The adverse reactions are not minor and no other vax chemistry has been given to the population with so little testing. So many kinds of adverse problems. Man do I want to be wrong.
I was not afraid of the covid vax, nor did I believe that masks wouldn’t work. I was wrong two times right there.
Lifting Universal Masking in Schools — Covid-19 Incidence among Students and Staff
“Table 1. 50% reduction in cases in schools that continued mask mandate vs those that did not, even those the schools that continued masking were relatively disadvantaged.” That is huge reduction given the fact that children are in school for only about 1/3 of their waking hours. Those who think schools weren’t an important local of transmission as the Omicron surge are clearly out of touch with reality (which may have been different earlier in the pandemic).
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2211029
Before saying masks don’t “work”, you need to define what level of protection constitutes “working”. Then you need to specify what type of masks are being used. Then you need to deal with non-compliance: In health care, we analysis the success of an intervention or treatment in terms of both success with the “intent-to-treat” group and those who actually completed the treatment/intervention. Public health officials focus on the intent-to-treat analysis whereas individuals care about the rewards they will reap if they comply.
To prove that vaccines “worked”, the FDA vaccine advisor committee defined “working” as at least 50% reduction in infection detected by PCR with a 95% confidence interval narrower than 40%-60% reduction. That definition of “working required a clinical trial with 20,000 volunteers (half vaccine/ half placebo) being followed until about 150 tested positive. (The study was blinded, so no one knew which group the victims belonged to until 150 victims had been accumulated). During the surge in the fall of 2020 about 1% of the population was testing positive every month, so it didn’t take long to accumulate the needed 150 victims. If you wanted to measure the reduction in transmission with one type of mask, you would need a similar number of volunteers for a similar period of time (or half as many for twice as long). If you would accept a wider confidence interval, you might be able to get away with 5000 volunteers. And you would need to have those volunteers keep a daily record of their activities and compliance, including if the volunteers were wearing masks during their most dangerous activities. Then you might want to know about the difference between cloth, surgical, N95s, N95s best suited to a person’s face and checked for leaks (the standard for professionals). And then you might want to control for how ofter the mask was changed or washed. And you would need to impress upon volunteers NOT to trust your mask so each group would be equally risk-adverse/reckless and you’d want to survey their attitude about risk when the study was complete.
Perhaps you see why we don’t have unambiguous studies telling us how well make work. Instead, we have some “natural experiments” like the one above set in schools or in India or on an aircraft carrier. some suggest masks “work” others to not.
Then I’m going to tell you even a 20% oe 30% reduction should count as working from society’s perspective. If you have a stable pandemic, 0.80^10 is 0.11% or an 89% reduction in cases and 0.7^10 = 0.03 or a 97% reduction after 10 rounds of transmission, about 2 months for the original variant or just over 1 month for the faster replicating/transmitting Omicron variant. However, individuals probably want better protection than that.
Your timing is excellent. If there were even a 3% reduction in disease communication, we would have detected it. There are none.
🚩 Top White House Covid Advisor, Dr. Jha, finally admits on a recent zoom call that there’s “no study in the world that show that masks work” pic.twitter.com/cQi4hcCFRx
— Defeat The Mandates (@dchomecoming) December 24, 2022
Top White House Covid Advisor Dr. Jha, finally admits on a recent zoom call that there’s “no study in the world that show that masks work” — which is exactly what CFP has been reporting for almost 3 years.
There is a Michigan fake study which shows even greater efficacy which has other problems. Your study is highly weather influenced if you read the SI – figure S2 and a number of statements in the article.
Were such a strong effect true, it would mean dozens of highly controlled mask studies should have passed, as I had originally expected. Instead, you have a weather vs covid vs population study as everyone stopped the policies at about the same time.
FWIW, “vaccine fascists” have rid the planet of small pox and polio and dramatically reduced the impact of a half-dozen nasty childhood illnesses. Anti-vac Luddites were endangering this success before COVID. I’m not eager to join them and eliminate all of the benefits old vaccines have provided and new vaccines might provide.
Based on the nearly 1000-fold reduction in infections in Israel – the first country to vaccinate more than 50% of their population by March 1, 2021 – mRNA vaccines had the ability to wipe out at least the original and alpha variants – perhaps world-wide – until the Delta variant arrived. Because the US and other countries were much slower to vaccinate, they never saw such unambiguous success before Delta arrived.
However, if you look only at the alpha variant, you will see that the Alpha variant was wiped out in the US by vaccination too! While Delta almost certainly would have out competed Alpha in the long run, the alpha variant didn’t disappear in the US because only a few percent of the population had immunity to both following infection by Delta! As best I can tell, a combination of naturally-acquired immunity and vaccination ended the devastation the Alpha variant caused. Since roughly 50% of the population of both Israel and the US had to be vaccinated before alpha began to permanently recede, my estimate is that natural infection had brought us only about halfway to herd immunity before vaccines arrived and saved roughly 0.5 million American lives.
Perhaps with 20/20 hindsight, it should have been obvious to some that the development of resistant variants was destined to prevent the eradication of COVID by vaccines. I was smart enough to tell myself in March of 2021 that I might never be safer than I was then, two weeks after my second dose. That was a vague thought designed to encourage me to return to normal.
IMO, vaccines with the potential to wipe out or dramatically suppress disease in an entire community should be mandatory or coerced, as we have done with small pox and all of the other major vaccine success stories. Before Delta, mRNA vaccines belonged in this category. Vaccines that benefit mostly the individual and do little to stop transmission in the community, like flu, tetanus and shingles, should be voluntary. After Delta and Omicron, COVID mRNAs belong in this category.
Try escaping a narrow focus on today’s dilemmas, and consider the whole history of vaccination and why it worked and the likely future benefits of vaccination. Best
You aren’t listening.
I only discussed mrna.
FWIW:
> Thus, the immune response seems to become less harmful for the person and more effective against the virus with subsequent vaccinations and class switching from IgG1 to IgG4 might be part of this.
11/12
Jeff – I look forward to your science-based explanation for why this guy’s speculation is wrong.
‘
Too funny.