So I do enjoy stirring things up a little. My last post was Assassination!! Really just to make you think, but I don’t believe it to be unreasonable in any way to assume this Rose garden event could have happened with intent. How many presidents have faced assassination?
Reader Amac78, whose family apparently doesn’t vote right at all (I wouldn’t personally admit to being a Dem these days), left a link to a cool database. We do love data. It’s interesting because it records 1516 superspreader events. That’s a lot in case you are wondering. Some of the data is a little strange and some came from left-wing news propagandists, so I believe it contains some errors however it states the number of ‘cases’ and location and more interestingly classifies the events as Indoor vs Outdoor vs both indoor/outdoor.
Of the 1516 cases 9 were registered unknown and 1 was blank.
Of the 1516 cases 59 were both Indoor and outdoor.
Of the 1516 cases 1443 were indoor events.
Of the 1516 cases 3 were recorded as outdoors.
THREE!!!!
The three events resulted in 26, 11 and 2 “cases” and from the descriptions I personally don’t believe those were completely outdoors either.
Some doctors say the Trump superspreader event happened outdoors in the Rose garden. For the number of outdoor infected folks TRUMP got the world record 35 people infected outside!!! Just before an election!!
How many of you were involved in a superspreader event and just got lucky? Not many I imagine. From the database, there are 192,903 cases recorded in superspreader events. From the Rose Garden event, if we assume that only one tenth of the people got infected at each event that means there were 1.93 million exposed to superspreaders or 1 person in 4000 on earth was in the vicinity of a superspreader event. If you look at the number of people in superspreaders outdoors, we have 2+11+27+ 35 (go Trump) = 75 outdoor superspreader cases. Using that same 10:1 assumed infection rate we have 750 people out of 7.6 billion on earth who were exposed to an outdoor superspreader event.
So basic math shows that we are looking at one in ten million odds that this happened naturally to these (100% COVID tested) people outdoors. Per some of our not-so-amazing doctors, this is what they claim to have happened to the leader of the free world. He was infected outdoors because he didn’t wear a mask – but wait, there’s more. He got the virus. So per my assumptions above, he only had a 1 in 10 chance of that so it is literally one in a hundred million odds for Trump to be infected outdoors in a superspreader event and the single one which just happened to set the world record for number of people infected outdoors. It is worth noting that Trump seems to have taken the worst initial viral load of anyone during this process.
The obvious conclusion: It really didn’t happen that way! The Rose Garden event wasn’t the ‘natural’ culprit because the math doesn’t work.
Either it wasn’t natural or it happened indoors. You really have a lot of difficulty getting the virus outside. Per the superspreader data, 0.2 percent of the events were outdoors, and of the cases 39 of 192,903 in this database gives 0.02 percent chance of catching the virus outdoor vs the rest. Per this database, you are 5000 times more likely to be infected indoors than out. That is what this data means, superspreaders DON’T really happen outdoors. The president’s outdoor event simply didn’t NATURALLY cause the virus to infect a world record number of people outside – in sunlight!! It is NOT true.
However, there was an indoor component to the event, in my opinion this is the most likely explanation but it seems that most everyone did not enter the building. I can’t find a good record of who went inside but from the photos, several of the infected people weren’t photographed inside the building. Kellyanne Conway was one we couldn’t find indoors, there were others.
So let’s talk a little about masks. I’ve been around this thing with no mask since the beginning. They don’t scientifically do anything except they are good for making control freaks feel better and to symbolize their power over our lives. They simply don’t don’t show statistical efficacy for stopping a viral infection. Every actual transmission study I could find had the same conclusion. Undetectable efficacy. Recently I’ve found stupid papers that don’t track actual efficacy but blast small things at filters and make conclusions. Nothing I could find shows less people infected by virus when using masks though. I really believed in masks before, but that’s how science works. If you have a good one, which actually tracks infections in humans, please link it.
This Doctor’s video explains visually why masks fail to stop a virus.
Ten points for anyone who can figure out why this doctors experiment is actually wrong. It does tell an interesting and true story though.
Many of us really aren’t thinking of this virus correctly. Relative to the virus, giant wads of spit 1 micrometer or more in diameter is not the culprit. It’s spreading in a dry diffuse cloud and it takes one good location to embed and infect us through our sinuses or lungs or whatever mucus membrane you medical types can think of. Even when breathed in, we fight it off sometimes just by probabilities of penetrating mucus layers, stomach acids etc.. It only takes one virus to start an infection, but from a probabilistic standpoint, a lot of active virus is usually required to initiate an infection.
I also am currently of the understanding that this isn’t as novel as it is supposed to be and some have a bit of natural immunity but that is based on the values in the SEIR modeling and how it fits to our actual data in Michigan and NewYork. Both states locked down hard, threw our elderly (and young) out of the hospitals and into nursing homes, didn’t allow people to move outside of their enclosed air environments and both performed HORRIBLY from a statistical standpoint. Very hard initial deaths followed by near immunity. The immunity level is behavior based, behavior changes modify the coefficients of the infection models. In Michigan we went outside when it got warmer and less people were being infected than were recovering and deaths went down. We started huge testing at that point and the leftists used the increase in detected cases to keep the fake panic going all the way until the election. Deaths did not go up with infections whatsoever.
This low death rate will continue until at least until we all run back inside and re-densify our population for winter (we are doing that right now). We might see some return in Michigan and New York at that point but many have already been ‘vaccinated by GOD’TM at this point. Florida is an example of low initial deaths because they were outside, followed by higher deaths when it got too hot.
Below is some supporting data to consider.
Michigan and New York. Locked down, infections spiked hard. It was too cold to go outside so those with the virus were sitting there making clouds of dry virus float around our houses, infecting their families and then heading out to the stores. Below is a graph of deaths, because we didn’t have much testing during the peak, we can’t use cases. Cases are high right now in Michigan but testing has gone completely bonkers in search of more cases. Deaths are the trend we need to watch for effectiveness of measures, even though you can see by the disclaimer at the top of the below graph, the government is absolutely making it look as bad as they can. A perfect SEIR response curve indicating near immunity – potentially until behavior changes to indoor living.
The next graph is of Florida. It gets too hot in July to go outside. Everyone stays indoors so initially they had very low infections despite almost no measures being taken, then they started getting cases as heat increased and of course the government made the wrong call and locked the state down.
So there you have it, per all of the data, hard lockdown indoors equates to increased infection and masks won’t help you. We now know that the latitude plot I did early in May was behavior based as I suspected at the time.
I’m thinking that this must be caused by behavior. I know that we stay in during the cold months and head into the sunlight when it is warm.
Jeff Id – May 8
The superspreader data and various graphs I’ve shown are as close to proof as you can find that we need to be outdoors as much as possible to keep viruses from spreading. High ventilation works, masks don’t work (at best), and may help exposed people recycle the virus until infected. After all, the stupid cloud you breathed in through your mask just left your body when you breathed out(natural defense mechanism), why do you want to catch some of it in a cloth and suck it back down?
We know that if this Trump superspreader event happened outside, it is most likely of nefarious origin because it has 100 million to one odds of happening to you or I, let alone the leader of the free world in a 100% COVID tested population. If it happened inside, it could be natural but is still incredibly unlikely for any of us to experience, again let alone the leader of the free world hanging around a 100% COVID tested population. Masks make little difference but spacing out and not sitting in a poorly ventilated office will help!!
What are the odds that the president naturally took the strongest initial viral load?
Can this event happen naturally, sure. Did it happen naturally? Does anyone have a list of who went indoors during this event? We do know, it statistically did not happen naturally outside.
So this is a quote from an article on Fauchi:
We had a superspreader event in the White House, and it was in a situation where people were crowded together and were not wearing masks,” Fauci said on CBS News radio.
The nation’s top infectious disease expert was referring to the fallout from the Sept. 26 garden ceremony, after nearly a dozen people who attended contracted COVID-19.
Fauci is an idiot. Q.E.D.
the Air Vent 
Ahh yea. I’ve realized the reason for the distinct unpopularity of my science. Masks. We’re doing it for others etc… find the paper boys and girls Find it.
I can get 10 to 1 downvotes on fox and 3: on breitbart but no papers.
Find it please.
Let us be honest. There is no such thing as a “superspreader” event. There is an early spreader event. Everyone will eventually be exposed. And 99.87% will not die.
It is time to stop the mass hysteria. Yes, cases are spiking as we open the economy. But deaths are not. We have flattened the curve. The area under the curve is the same as if we did not flatten the curve. The difference is we spread it out./
The media, in order to destroy Trump, is trying to flip the switch (as Malkovitch said in RED). It does work on the brain dead and sheep.
Not on the ones that are following the science.
We didn’t spread it out in Michigan and New York. We made it worse. If you want to spread it out, force people to open windows and go outside rather than lock yourself in a low air-exchange building with a non-functional mask on your face.
The Swedes proved that. Quarantine the sick and protect the vulnerable. Beyond that is dictatorship.
In the Doc’s demonstration, one has to admit that the vapor could is relatively close to the good doc. To illustrate this point, he should try to blow out a candle through a mask. It can’t be done. In effect, a mask increases distancing over short periods at least. It would not have an effect in a confined space over a longer period of time.
The latest understanding is that virions are present on the outside surface of water based particles which have micron range diameters. There masks can filter some fraction of these via a variety of forces.
The problem is, you are imagining what the mask is doing but there have been zero studies that detect ANY efficacy against viral spread. There have been studies too. They all fail, at least the ones that I can find. This result surprised me but that is how science works. If the test fails, the hypothesis fails. The spittle concept is not held up by the science to date.
So then you should imagine why it would fail. If that micron drop you discuss dries out, what happens to the virus? Does it help that virus re-plant in the persons lungs by giving a second opportunity? Does it simply release the virus again when you breath out? Certainly, a mask would become saturated with the virus itself in short order and then you have no effect on communication distance whatsoever. My thought is that there are clouds ejected around the mask and these airborne clouds of virus are the primary transmission mechanism.
I think these hypotheses about spit sound reasonable to us because we can see it. The stuff you cannot see is the real problem in my opinion because the masks fail to show efficacy against actual spread of virus in testing. That’s my hypothesis and so far, it has been borne out by the science, whereas the spittle hypothesis has failed to be detected.
He is an idiot.
Another example of such. He talks in circles. He doesn’t provide analyses which leads to solutions.
Fauci quote, “The issue is that as we enter, as we are now, in the cooler season of the fall, and ultimately the colder season of the winter, you don’t want to be in that compromised position where your baseline daily infection is high and you are increasing as opposed to going in the other direction,”
Fauci quote with notes, “The issue is that as we enter, as we are now (which one is it, entering or in it?) in the cooler season of the fall (er, the fall is the cooler season), and ultimately the colder season of the winter (the winter IS the coldest season), you don’t want to be in that compromised position where your baseline daily infection is high and you are increasing as opposed to going in the other direction (no season is the season for getting worse).”
Translation: The issue is you don’t want more people getting sick. DUH! What is his point? Solution?