the Air Vent

Because the world needs another opinion

Posts Tagged ‘trend’

Don’t Get Fooled, Again…Again.

Posted by Jeff Id on October 30, 2008

I am still working on my junior Climate Audit merit badge. In this post I continue bashing on Tamino because he is a Left wing scientist who believes we can legislate climate and is willing to write anything to see that we give it our best shot. Also, he still won’t let me comment on his blog. (Not many dissenters there I’ve noticed!)

In my other post Tamino’s Folly – Temperatures did Drop I demonstrated that we know temperature trend to a higher degree than Tamino has asserted. Several readers made the claim that Tamino was arguing that we don’t know the temps dropped due to weather noise, however that was not part of the post I was addressing.

I repeatedly stated that I agreed with Tamino’s analysis of trends indicating that the recent drop could easily be part of a longer term warming and in fact I had replicated it. However, I didn’t explain the rest of the story. His link is here

Don’t Get Fooled, Again

There is a serious problem with his argument which goes unsaid, not that his demonstration is terribly wrong just that the assumptions are designed with a predetermined conclusion. It happens right in the first paragraph.

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More Evidence of Tamino’s Folly

Posted by Jeff Id on October 24, 2008

To Chris H, Raven and other posts. I do feel privileged to have the quality of comments I get, really it will keep me on my toes. Whether we disagree or not my point recently is to demonstrate some of the flaws in the math on global warming. Tamino has a good point which I cannot and won’t disagree with. His point is in an upslope in temp, assuming the weather noise we have, the local short term down slopes which WILL occur do not preclude a continued trend up. This post deals with your points.

BTW:I verified his ARMA post today, it seems valid to me.

However, — you knew that was coming.

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A Better Explanation of Tamino’s Folly

Posted by Jeff Id on October 23, 2008

Ok, I can’t blame the posters from my last article. It is clearly my fault for not explaining what I did well enough. Fortunately for me, others have a better gift for this than I. I have referred to the Digital Diatribes blog repeatedly for trend analysis, simply because he does the best job on the internet of describing the measured trends of several key values. He posted this comment on Watts Up With That.

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Tamino’s Folly – Temperatures did Drop

Posted by Jeff Id on October 21, 2008

Ok, the truth is I didn’t care before if the downward trend is valid. I’m just a bit annoyed that Tamino (at Open Mind) and Real Climate won’t let me post on their blogs about it. In this post I demonstrate the folly of his conclusions.

Tamino has made a couple of posts on how the last 10 year drop in temperature is not statistically significant so it isn’t real. He went too far in his last one and began claiming it was a tactic of some kind of creature called a denialist to confuse and confound the public.

Let’s see what Tamino has been saying on his blog link HERE.

Some of you might wonder why I make so many posts about the impact of noise on trend analysis, and how it can not only lead to mistaken conclusions about temperature trends, it can be abused by those who wish deliberately to mislead readers. The reason is that this is still a common tactic by denialists to confuse and confound the public.

I just hate bad science. First he points out how Bjorn Lomborg made some comments about temperature decreasing, after placing the ever more popular label of denialist on him implying Lomborg’s statements were intended to confound and confuse the public. Heres the main point of what Bjorn Lomborg said.

They (temperatures) have actually decreased by between 0.01 and 0.1C per decade.

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Arctic Ice has Actually Grown? All the Data Agrees?

Posted by Jeff Id on August 31, 2008

The arctic ice hasn’t grown, how is it possible? You would have to be an idiot to believe that. We have been reading everywhere in the headlines that the arctic ice is disappearing. Headlines like this from the first page of a google news search-

Arctic ice melting and not coming back: scientist

Melting Arctic Ice Imperils Polar Bears

Arctic Ice On Verge Of Another All-time Low

Meltdown in the Arctic: Polar icecap shrinking at an alarming rate

North Pole ice cap melting faster than ever

Melting polar ice hits ‘tipping point,’ nears record loss

How can this be true? Here is the data directly from the scientists reporting the melting.

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